{
  "meta": {
    "run_date": "2026-05-12",
    "race_id": "ca1_special_primary_2026_06_02",
    "title": "California's 1st Congressional District Special Election",
    "election_date": "2026-06-02",
    "possible_runoff_date": "2026-08-04",
    "n_simulations": 50000,
    "model_type": "fundamentals_special_primary_v1",
    "pipeline_version": "1.0",
    "language": "en"
  },
  "district": {
    "state": "California",
    "district": "1st Congressional District",
    "vacancy_reason": "Special election to fill the CA-1 House vacancy after Rep. Doug LaMalfa left Congress.",
    "district_context": {
      "house_2024_republican_share": 61.0,
      "house_2024_democratic_share": 39.0,
      "note": "The district remains structurally Republican-leaning, but the June 2 special is a crowded all-party primary."
    }
  },
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "gallagher_r",
      "name": "James Gallagher",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#cf2d2d",
      "projected_vote_mean": 41.3,
      "top_two_probability": 1.0,
      "first_place_probability": 0.9569,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 34.81,
        "q10": 36.21,
        "q25": 38.6,
        "q50": 41.27,
        "q75": 43.95,
        "q90": 46.44,
        "q95": 47.92
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "mcguire_d",
      "name": "Mike McGuire",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#2563eb",
      "projected_vote_mean": 29.63,
      "top_two_probability": 0.9957,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0431,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 23.74,
        "q10": 24.98,
        "q25": 27.07,
        "q50": 29.55,
        "q75": 32.09,
        "q90": 34.44,
        "q95": 35.82
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "denney_d",
      "name": "Chris Denney",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#5aa0ff",
      "projected_vote_mean": 15.52,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0043,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 11.02,
        "q10": 11.89,
        "q25": 13.48,
        "q50": 15.36,
        "q75": 17.41,
        "q90": 19.35,
        "q95": 20.56
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "thiara_r",
      "name": "Jot Thiara",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#f06b6b",
      "projected_vote_mean": 7.81,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 4.61,
        "q10": 5.21,
        "q25": 6.28,
        "q50": 7.63,
        "q75": 9.15,
        "q90": 10.66,
        "q95": 11.6
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "montgomery_npp",
      "name": "Richard Montgomery",
      "party": "No party preference",
      "color": "#a7abaf",
      "projected_vote_mean": 5.74,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 3.02,
        "q10": 3.5,
        "q25": 4.39,
        "q50": 5.55,
        "q75": 6.89,
        "q90": 8.23,
        "q95": 9.09
      }
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "favorite_id": "gallagher_r",
    "favorite_name": "James Gallagher",
    "favorite_probability": 0.9569,
    "runoff_probability": 0.985,
    "majority_outright_probability": 0.015,
    "likely_runoff_pair": [
      "gallagher_r",
      "mcguire_d"
    ],
    "likely_runoff_names": [
      "James Gallagher",
      "Mike McGuire"
    ],
    "likely_runoff_probability": 0.9957,
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite": "James Gallagher",
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite_probability": 0.5685
  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "assumptions": [
      {
        "label": "Republican district baseline",
        "note": "Recent federal results make a Republican first-place finish the default unless the Democratic field consolidates unusually well."
      },
      {
        "label": "Certified five-candidate all-party primary",
        "note": "The official ballot has two Democrats, two Republicans and one no-party-preference candidate. The main uncertainty is whether Gallagher can clear 50% or faces a top-two runoff."
      },
      {
        "label": "Runoff conditional outlook",
        "note": "If the expected Gallagher-McGuire pairing materializes, the August runoff still starts from a Republican-leaning district prior."
      },
      {
        "label": "No public district polling average",
        "note": "This page is fundamentals-only unless public district polling appears before June 2."
      }
    ],
    "top_two_pairs": [
      {
        "pair": [
          "gallagher_r",
          "mcguire_d"
        ],
        "probability": 0.9957
      },
      {
        "pair": [
          "denney_d",
          "gallagher_r"
        ],
        "probability": 0.0043
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "California Secretary of State certified candidate list for CD-1",
      "url": "https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/special-elections/2026-cd1/cert-list-primary.pdf"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ballotpedia special election overview",
      "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_1st_Congressional_District_special_election,_2026"
    },
    {
      "label": "Wikipedia tracking page for the special election",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California%27s_1st_congressional_district_special_election"
    }
  ],
  "method_note": "No public district polling average is used here. This is a fundamentals-only special-primary projection built from district baseline, candidate-field structure and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations."
}