{
  "meta": {
    "run_date": "2026-05-12",
    "race_id": "ca14_special_primary_2026_06_16",
    "title": "California's 14th Congressional District Special Election",
    "election_date": "2026-06-16",
    "possible_runoff_date": "2026-08-18",
    "n_simulations": 50000,
    "model_type": "fundamentals_special_primary_v1",
    "pipeline_version": "1.0",
    "language": "en",
    "status": "active"
  },
  "district": {
    "state": "California",
    "district": "14th Congressional District",
    "vacancy_reason": "Special election to fill the CA-14 House vacancy after Rep. Eric Swalwell resigned.",
    "district_context": {
      "house_2024_democratic_share": 67.75,
      "house_2024_republican_share": 32.25,
      "current_house_model_democratic_share": 72.1,
      "current_house_model_rating": "Solid Democrat",
      "note": "The district starts as a strongly Democratic seat; the live uncertainty is mostly candidate order in the top-two primary."
    }
  },
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "wahab_d",
      "name": "Aisha Wahab",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#2563eb",
      "projected_vote_mean": 24.89,
      "top_two_probability": 0.9016,
      "first_place_probability": 0.7554,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 12.87,
        "q10": 15.14,
        "q25": 19.22,
        "q50": 24.36,
        "q75": 29.99,
        "q90": 35.31,
        "q95": 38.68
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hernandez_d",
      "name": "Melissa Hernandez",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#4f8cff",
      "projected_vote_mean": 12.36,
      "top_two_probability": 0.3148,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0754,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 4.88,
        "q10": 6.07,
        "q25": 8.46,
        "q50": 11.7,
        "q75": 15.58,
        "q90": 19.49,
        "q95": 22.04
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "singh_d",
      "name": "Rakhi Israni Singh",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#6ea0ff",
      "projected_vote_mean": 11.2,
      "top_two_probability": 0.2366,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0544,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 4.2,
        "q10": 5.3,
        "q25": 7.54,
        "q50": 10.56,
        "q75": 14.19,
        "q90": 17.95,
        "q95": 20.41
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "cordes_d",
      "name": "Alisha Cordes",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#85b0ff",
      "projected_vote_mean": 9.18,
      "top_two_probability": 0.1249,
      "first_place_probability": 0.024,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 3.11,
        "q10": 4.03,
        "q25": 5.93,
        "q50": 8.58,
        "q75": 11.77,
        "q90": 15.08,
        "q95": 17.34
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ridenour_d",
      "name": "Sheriene Ridenour",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#9ec2ff",
      "projected_vote_mean": 7.24,
      "top_two_probability": 0.057,
      "first_place_probability": 0.009,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 2.12,
        "q10": 2.86,
        "q25": 4.4,
        "q50": 6.61,
        "q75": 9.46,
        "q90": 12.47,
        "q95": 14.4
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "thiara_d",
      "name": "Jot Thiara",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#bad3ff",
      "projected_vote_mean": 6.16,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0313,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0039,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 1.64,
        "q10": 2.26,
        "q25": 3.58,
        "q50": 5.57,
        "q75": 8.1,
        "q90": 10.83,
        "q95": 12.77
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "huang_r",
      "name": "Wendy Huang",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#cf2d2d",
      "projected_vote_mean": 11.84,
      "top_two_probability": 0.2805,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0702,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 4.44,
        "q10": 5.62,
        "q25": 7.99,
        "q50": 11.16,
        "q75": 15.0,
        "q90": 18.88,
        "q95": 21.41
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "wong_r",
      "name": "Tom Wong",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#dc4545",
      "projected_vote_mean": 6.44,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0374,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0059,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 1.74,
        "q10": 2.37,
        "q25": 3.77,
        "q50": 5.85,
        "q75": 8.46,
        "q90": 11.28,
        "q95": 13.23
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "maldonado_r",
      "name": "Dena Maldonado",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#e35a5a",
      "projected_vote_mean": 4.35,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0092,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0011,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 0.83,
        "q10": 1.25,
        "q25": 2.24,
        "q50": 3.78,
        "q75": 5.86,
        "q90": 8.2,
        "q95": 9.8
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "wu_r",
      "name": "Jack Wu",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#f06b6b",
      "projected_vote_mean": 3.37,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0031,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0004,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 0.49,
        "q10": 0.8,
        "q25": 1.55,
        "q50": 2.82,
        "q75": 4.59,
        "q90": 6.67,
        "q95": 8.16
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "zevallos_npp",
      "name": "Victor Zevallos",
      "party": "No party preference",
      "color": "#a7abaf",
      "projected_vote_mean": 2.96,
      "top_two_probability": 0.0035,
      "first_place_probability": 0.0003,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 0.2,
        "q10": 0.43,
        "q25": 1.11,
        "q50": 2.35,
        "q75": 4.16,
        "q90": 6.3,
        "q95": 7.83
      }
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "favorite_id": "wahab_d",
    "favorite_name": "Aisha Wahab",
    "favorite_probability": 0.7554,
    "runoff_probability": 0.9979,
    "majority_outright_probability": 0.0021,
    "likely_runoff_pair": [
      "hernandez_d",
      "wahab_d"
    ],
    "likely_runoff_names": [
      "Melissa Hernandez",
      "Aisha Wahab"
    ],
    "likely_runoff_parties": [
      "Democrat",
      "Democrat"
    ],
    "likely_runoff_probability": 0.263,
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite": null,
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite_probability": null
  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "assumptions": [
      {
        "label": "Strong Democratic district baseline",
        "note": "CA-14 voted about 68D-32R in the 2024 House result and is Solid Democratic in the current House model."
      },
      {
        "label": "Top-two primary first",
        "note": "The June 16 round can elect a majority winner outright, but the default expectation is a top-two runoff on August 18."
      },
      {
        "label": "Certified candidate slate",
        "note": "The model uses the April 29 certified list: six Democrats, four Republicans and one no-party-preference candidate."
      },
      {
        "label": "No public district polling average",
        "note": "This is a fundamentals-only desk until public CA-14 special-election polling appears."
      }
    ],
    "top_two_pairs": [
      {
        "pair": [
          "hernandez_d",
          "wahab_d"
        ],
        "probability": 0.263
      },
      {
        "pair": [
          "huang_r",
          "wahab_d"
        ],
        "probability": 0.231
      },
      {
        "pair": [
          "singh_d",
          "wahab_d"
        ],
        "probability": 0.1927
      },
      {
        "pair": [
          "cordes_d",
          "wahab_d"
        ],
        "probability": 0.1012
      },
      {
        "pair": [
          "ridenour_d",
          "wahab_d"
        ],
        "probability": 0.0457
      },
      {
        "pair": [
          "wahab_d",
          "wong_r"
        ],
        "probability": 0.0298
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "California Secretary of State certified candidate list for CD-14",
      "url": "https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/special-elections/2026-cd14/cert-list-primary.pdf"
    },
    {
      "label": "FEC CA-14 special election filing information",
      "url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/Special_Election_Filing_Information_-_CA_14.pdf"
    },
    {
      "label": "Wikipedia tracking page for the CA-14 special election",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California%27s_14th_congressional_district_special_election"
    }
  ],
  "method_note": "No public district polling average is used here. This is a provisional fundamentals-only special-primary projection built from district baseline, candidate-field structure and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations."
}