{
  "meta": {
    "run_date": "2026-09-08",
    "race_id": "ga13_special_runoff_2026_08_25",
    "title": "Georgia's 13th Congressional District Special Runoff",
    "election_date": "2026-08-25",
    "n_simulations": 50000,
    "model_type": "fundamentals_special_runoff_v1",
    "pipeline_version": "1.0",
    "language": "en",
    "status": "resolved",
    "race_format": "head_to_head",
    "result": {
      "election_date": "2026-08-25",
      "recorded_on": "2026-09-08",
      "winner_id": "blair_d",
      "winner_name": "Everton Blair",
      "total_votes": 18342,
      "source": {
        "label": "Georgia Secretary of State — official August 25 runoff results",
        "url": "https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/08252026SpecialElectionRunoff"
      },
      "count_status": "official — 6 of 6 localities reporting",
      "candidates": [
        {
          "id": "blair_d",
          "name": "Everton Blair",
          "votes": 9895,
          "percent": 53.95
        },
        {
          "id": "scott_d",
          "name": "Marcye Scott",
          "votes": 8447,
          "percent": 46.05
        }
      ],
      "model_called_winner": false,
      "projected_favorite": "Marcye Scott",
      "projected_favorite_probability": 0.8589,
      "actual_margin_for_projected_favorite": -7.9
    }
  },
  "district": {
    "state": "Georgia",
    "district": "13th Congressional District",
    "vacancy_reason": "Special runoff to complete the term of Rep. David Scott, who died on April 22, 2026.",
    "district_context": {
      "house_2024_democratic_share": 71.83,
      "house_2024_republican_share": 28.17,
      "note": "Both finalists are Democrats; district partisanship confirms party control but does not decide the same-party runoff."
    }
  },
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "scott_d",
      "name": "Marcye Scott",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#2563eb",
      "first_round_percent": 46.05,
      "projected_vote_mean": 53.97,
      "win_probability": 0.8589,
      "top_two_probability": 1.0,
      "first_place_probability": 0.8589,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 47.94,
        "q10": 49.26,
        "q25": 51.51,
        "q50": 53.98,
        "q75": 56.47,
        "q90": 58.65,
        "q95": 59.92
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "blair_d",
      "name": "Everton Blair",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#6a8ff0",
      "first_round_percent": 37.43,
      "projected_vote_mean": 46.03,
      "win_probability": 0.1411,
      "top_two_probability": 1.0,
      "first_place_probability": 0.1411,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 40.08,
        "q10": 41.35,
        "q25": 43.53,
        "q50": 46.02,
        "q75": 48.49,
        "q90": 50.74,
        "q95": 52.06
      }
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "favorite_id": "scott_d",
    "favorite_name": "Marcye Scott",
    "favorite_probability": 0.8589,
    "projected_margin_mean": 7.95,
    "projected_margin_quantiles": {
      "q05": -4.13,
      "q10": -1.49,
      "q25": 3.02,
      "q50": 7.96,
      "q75": 12.94,
      "q90": 17.3,
      "q95": 19.85
    },
    "upset_probability": 0.1411,
    "runoff_probability": 0.0,
    "majority_outright_probability": 0.8589,
    "likely_runoff_names": [
      "Marcye Scott",
      "Everton Blair"
    ],
    "likely_runoff_probability": 1.0,
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite": "Marcye Scott",
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite_probability": 0.8589
  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "first_round": {
      "scott_d": 9439,
      "blair_d": 7673,
      "gonzales_r": 1777,
      "park_r": 971,
      "moore_d": 639
    },
    "top_two_pairs": [
      {
        "pair": [
          "scott_d",
          "blair_d"
        ],
        "probability": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      {
        "label": "Certified first-round structure",
        "note": "Scott led Blair 46.0% to 37.4% on July 28; that observed vote is the model's main anchor."
      },
      {
        "label": "Runoff retention",
        "note": "Each finalist retains most, but not all, of the first-round coalition under correlated low-turnout uncertainty."
      },
      {
        "label": "Eliminated-voter uncertainty",
        "note": "Carlos Moore and Republican voters may transfer to either finalist or abstain; no deterministic transfer is imposed."
      },
      {
        "label": "No public district poll",
        "note": "No public GA-13 runoff polling average is used."
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Georgia Secretary of State — official August 25 runoff results",
      "url": "https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/08252026SpecialElectionRunoff"
    },
    {
      "label": "Georgia Secretary of State — official July 28 results",
      "url": "https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/072826GASpecialElection"
    },
    {
      "label": "Georgia Secretary of State — special-election call",
      "url": "https://sos.ga.gov/news/call-special-election-congressional-district-13"
    },
    {
      "label": "Federal Election Commission — GA-13 calendar",
      "url": "https://www.fec.gov/updates/georgia-special-elections-reporting-13th-congressional-district-2026/"
    }
  ],
  "method_note": "Result: Everton Blair won the August 25 runoff with 9,895 votes (53.95%) to Marcye Scott's 8,447 (46.05%), on the Georgia Secretary of State's official count. This projection had Scott as an 85.9% favorite by a mean margin of 7.9 points; she lost by 7.9 points, below the model's 5th percentile. The forecast below is kept unchanged as the record of a miss. It was a fundamentals-only head-to-head projection anchored to the July 28 first-round result, with stochastic runoff retention, transfer and turnout assumptions across 50,000 simulations."
}