{
  "meta": {
    "run_date": "2026-04-21",
    "race_id": "ga14_runoff_2026_04_07",
    "title": "Georgia's 14th Congressional District Special Runoff",
    "election_date": "2026-04-07",
    "n_simulations": 50000,
    "model_type": "fundamentals_runoff_v1",
    "pipeline_version": "1.0",
    "language": "en"
  },
  "district": {
    "state": "Georgia",
    "district": "14th Congressional District",
    "incumbent_vacancy_reason": "Special election to fill the House vacancy in GA-14.",
    "presidential_2024_context": {
      "republican_share": 68.0,
      "democratic_share": 31.0,
      "note": "District-level presidential context used as a prior in a fundamentals-only runoff model."
    }
  },
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "fuller_r",
      "name": "Clay Fuller",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#c62828",
      "first_round_percent": 34.87,
      "projected_vote_mean": 58.19,
      "win_probability": 0.958,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 50.39,
        "q10": 52.06,
        "q25": 54.91,
        "q50": 58.16,
        "q75": 61.42,
        "q90": 64.36,
        "q95": 66.05
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "harris_d",
      "name": "Shawn Harris",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#2563eb",
      "first_round_percent": 37.34,
      "projected_vote_mean": 41.81,
      "win_probability": 0.042,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 33.95,
        "q10": 35.64,
        "q25": 38.58,
        "q50": 41.84,
        "q75": 45.09,
        "q90": 47.94,
        "q95": 49.61
      }
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "favorite_id": "fuller_r",
    "favorite_name": "Clay Fuller",
    "favorite_probability": 0.958,
    "projected_margin_mean": 16.37,
    "projected_margin_quantiles": {
      "q05": 0.77,
      "q10": 4.11,
      "q25": 9.82,
      "q50": 16.33,
      "q75": 22.84,
      "q90": 28.72,
      "q95": 32.09
    },
    "upset_probability": 0.042
  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "first_round": {
      "fuller_r": 34.87,
      "harris_d": 37.34,
      "other_republicans": 25.13,
      "other_non_republicans": 2.66
    },
    "assumptions": [
      {
        "label": "Other Republican vote to Fuller",
        "mean": 0.82,
        "note": "Modeled as a noisy consolidation rate, not as a certainty."
      },
      {
        "label": "Other non-Republican vote to Harris",
        "mean": 0.82,
        "note": "Captures modest but incomplete consolidation on the Democratic side."
      },
      {
        "label": "Runoff turnout tilt",
        "mean_points_r": 1.0,
        "note": "Allows for a small Republican turnout edge in a low-turnout runoff."
      },
      {
        "label": "District prior",
        "republican_share": 0.665,
        "note": "Anchored to the district's recent presidential lean rather than national polling."
      }
    ]
  },
  "distribution": {
    "fuller_vote_histogram": [
      {
        "bin_start": 35,
        "bin_end": 36,
        "probability": 0.0
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 36,
        "bin_end": 37,
        "probability": 0.0
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 37,
        "bin_end": 38,
        "probability": 0.0
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 38,
        "bin_end": 39,
        "probability": 2e-05
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 39,
        "bin_end": 40,
        "probability": 4e-05
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 40,
        "bin_end": 41,
        "probability": 0.0
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 41,
        "bin_end": 42,
        "probability": 0.00014
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 42,
        "bin_end": 43,
        "probability": 0.00026
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 43,
        "bin_end": 44,
        "probability": 0.00072
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 44,
        "bin_end": 45,
        "probability": 0.00116
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 45,
        "bin_end": 46,
        "probability": 0.00286
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 46,
        "bin_end": 47,
        "probability": 0.004
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 47,
        "bin_end": 48,
        "probability": 0.00626
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 48,
        "bin_end": 49,
        "probability": 0.01058
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 49,
        "bin_end": 50,
        "probability": 0.01596
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 50,
        "bin_end": 51,
        "probability": 0.02354
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 51,
        "bin_end": 52,
        "probability": 0.03205
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 52,
        "bin_end": 53,
        "probability": 0.04231
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 53,
        "bin_end": 54,
        "probability": 0.05241
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 54,
        "bin_end": 55,
        "probability": 0.06399
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 55,
        "bin_end": 56,
        "probability": 0.07019
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 56,
        "bin_end": 57,
        "probability": 0.07791
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 57,
        "bin_end": 58,
        "probability": 0.08235
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 58,
        "bin_end": 59,
        "probability": 0.08083
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 59,
        "bin_end": 60,
        "probability": 0.08109
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 60,
        "bin_end": 61,
        "probability": 0.07417
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 61,
        "bin_end": 62,
        "probability": 0.06229
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 62,
        "bin_end": 63,
        "probability": 0.05469
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 63,
        "bin_end": 64,
        "probability": 0.04615
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 64,
        "bin_end": 65,
        "probability": 0.03671
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 65,
        "bin_end": 66,
        "probability": 0.02656
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 66,
        "bin_end": 67,
        "probability": 0.01784
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 67,
        "bin_end": 68,
        "probability": 0.01312
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 68,
        "bin_end": 69,
        "probability": 0.00806
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 69,
        "bin_end": 70,
        "probability": 0.00498
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 70,
        "bin_end": 71,
        "probability": 0.00322
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 71,
        "bin_end": 72,
        "probability": 0.00174
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 72,
        "bin_end": 73,
        "probability": 0.00092
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 73,
        "bin_end": 74,
        "probability": 0.00054
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 74,
        "bin_end": 75,
        "probability": 0.0003
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Georgia Secretary of State / state elections results",
      "url": "https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/"
    },
    {
      "label": "Associated Press race preview",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/"
    },
    {
      "label": "Wikipedia tracking page for the special election",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_14th_congressional_district_special_election"
    }
  ],
  "method_note": "No public runoff polling was used. This page is a fundamentals-only special-election projection built from first-round results, district partisanship, runoff transfer assumptions and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations."
}