{
  "meta": {
    "run_date": "2026-04-17",
    "race_id": "nj11_special_2026_04_16",
    "title": "New Jersey's 11th Congressional District Special Election",
    "election_date": "2026-04-16",
    "n_simulations": 50000,
    "model_type": "fundamentals_special_v1",
    "pipeline_version": "1.0",
    "language": "en",
    "status": "resolved"
  },
  "district": {
    "state": "New Jersey",
    "district": "11th Congressional District",
    "vacancy_reason": "Special election to fill the NJ-11 House vacancy after Gov. Mikie Sherrill left Congress.",
    "presidential_2024_context": {
      "democratic_share": 53.0,
      "republican_share": 45.0,
      "note": "District-level presidential context used as a prior in a fundamentals-only special election model."
    },
    "house_2024_context": {
      "democratic_share": 56.5,
      "republican_share": 43.5,
      "note": "Anchored to the district's recent House baseline, then widened for special-election uncertainty."
    },
    "current_house_projection_context": {
      "democratic_share": 60.2,
      "republican_share": 39.8,
      "note": "Current district projection from the U.S. House model used as the main anchor unless district polling appears."
    }
  },
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "mejia_d",
      "name": "Analilia Mejia",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#2563eb",
      "projected_vote_mean": 58.41,
      "win_probability": 0.9999,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 54.65,
        "q10": 55.48,
        "q25": 56.87,
        "q50": 58.42,
        "q75": 59.97,
        "q90": 61.33,
        "q95": 62.16
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hathaway_r",
      "name": "Joe Hathaway",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#cf2d2d",
      "projected_vote_mean": 41.59,
      "win_probability": 0.0001,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 37.84,
        "q10": 38.67,
        "q25": 40.03,
        "q50": 41.58,
        "q75": 43.13,
        "q90": 44.52,
        "q95": 45.35
      }
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "favorite_id": "mejia_d",
    "favorite_name": "Analilia Mejia",
    "favorite_probability": 0.9999,
    "projected_margin_mean": 16.82,
    "projected_margin_quantiles": {
      "q05": 9.3,
      "q10": 10.97,
      "q25": 13.74,
      "q50": 16.83,
      "q75": 19.93,
      "q90": 22.66,
      "q95": 24.33
    },
    "upset_probability": 0.0001,
    "result_margin": 20.4
  },
  "result": {
    "status": "resolved",
    "winner_id": "mejia_d",
    "winner_name": "Analilia Mejia",
    "winner_party": "Democrat",
    "winner_vote": 60.2,
    "runner_up_name": "Joe Hathaway",
    "runner_up_party": "Republican",
    "runner_up_vote": 39.8,
    "source_label": "NBC News / AP race call",
    "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-special-elections/new-jersey-house-results",
    "note": "The race has now been called and archived. VoteScope projected Mejia as the clear favorite before election day."
  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "assumptions": [
      {
        "label": "District Democratic baseline",
        "note": "NJ-11 is still a Democratic-leaning district in recent federal results, even after allowing for a lower-turnout special."
      },
      {
        "label": "Current House anchor",
        "note": "The special starts from the current district-level House projection rather than a neutral 50-50 environment."
      },
      {
        "label": "Special-election turnout risk",
        "note": "The model still leaves room for a modest Republican turnout edge, but no longer treats that edge as large enough to erase the district's Democratic lean."
      },
      {
        "label": "Candidate fit uncertainty",
        "note": "Specials can still punish weak partisan fit or local mismatches, but candidate-specific noise is narrower than before because the previous setup overstated upset risk."
      },
      {
        "label": "No public district polling average",
        "note": "This page is fundamentals-only unless a public district poll is added later."
      }
    ]
  },
  "distribution": {
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        "probability": 0.0
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      },
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        "bin_end": 49,
        "probability": 4e-05
      },
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        "bin_end": 50,
        "probability": 8e-05
      },
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        "bin_start": 50,
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        "probability": 0.0004
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        "probability": 0.00224
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        "probability": 0.0069
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      },
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      },
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        "probability": 0.07718
      },
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        "probability": 0.12432
      },
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        "probability": 0.15892
      },
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        "probability": 0.16988
      },
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        "probability": 0.15706
      },
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        "probability": 0.1176
      },
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        "probability": 0.06926
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 62,
        "bin_end": 63,
        "probability": 0.03696
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 63,
        "bin_end": 64,
        "probability": 0.01416
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 64,
        "bin_end": 65,
        "probability": 0.0054
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 65,
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        "probability": 0.00136
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 66,
        "bin_end": 67,
        "probability": 0.00032
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 67,
        "bin_end": 68,
        "probability": 0.0
      },
      {
        "bin_start": 68,
        "bin_end": 69,
        "probability": 0.0
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        "probability": 0.0
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    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ballotpedia special election overview",
      "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_11th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2026"
    },
    {
      "label": "New Jersey Division of Elections",
      "url": "https://nj.gov/state/elections/"
    },
    {
      "label": "Wikipedia tracking page for the special election",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Jersey%27s_11th_congressional_district_special_election"
    }
  ],
  "method_note": "This desk is now archived as a resolved result page. Before election day, VoteScope modeled NJ-11 from district partisanship, recent House performance, special-election turnout assumptions and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations."
}