{
  "meta": {
    "as_of_date": "2026-04-30",
    "n_polls": 324,
    "period_start": "2018-06-21",
    "period_end": "2026-04-26",
    "publication_status": "publishable_with_caveats",
    "source": "Ontario Wikipedia toplines (sidecar archive)",
    "version": "1.0"
  },
  "index": {
    "score": 65.8,
    "label": "positive_fraser_signal",
    "label_en": "Positive Fraser signal",
    "label_fr": "Signal Fraser positif"
  },
  "interpretation": {
    "en": "50 is neutral; above 50 means Fraser interim periods poll better after simple controls. This is an editorial indicator, not a projection input.",
    "fr": "50 est neutre ; au-dessus de 50, les périodes intérimaires de Fraser sondent mieux après contrôles simples. C'est un indicateur éditorial, pas un intrant de projection."
  },
  "caveat": {
    "en": "Uses preserved Ontario Wikipedia toplines when available. Interpret as an editorial signal, not proof of causality: interim periods overlap with post-election resets and leadership contests.",
    "fr": "Utilise les sondages topline Wikipedia Ontario préservés lorsque disponibles. À interpréter comme un signal éditorial, pas une preuve de causalité : les périodes intérimaires chevauchent les remises à zéro post-électorales et les courses au leadership."
  },
  "periods": [
    {
      "period_id": "fraser_interim_2018",
      "leader_name": "John Fraser",
      "leader_type": "interim",
      "n_polls": 25,
      "first_poll": "2018-06-21",
      "last_poll": "2020-03-05",
      "avg_on_lib": 28.47,
      "avg_lib_pc_margin": -4.67,
      "avg_lib_ndp_margin": 1.48,
      "firms": "abacus, angus_reid, campaign_research, corbett_communications, ekos, innovative_research, ipsos, mainstreet, pollara"
    },
    {
      "period_id": "del_duca_regular",
      "leader_name": "Steven Del Duca",
      "leader_type": "regular",
      "n_polls": 135,
      "first_poll": "2020-03-20",
      "last_poll": "2022-06-20",
      "avg_on_lib": 27.67,
      "avg_lib_pc_margin": -9.6,
      "avg_lib_ndp_margin": 3.73,
      "firms": "abacus, angus_reid, campaign_research, counsel, earnscliffe_leger, ekos, forum, innovative_research, ipsos, leger, mainstreet, nanos, pollara, research_co"
    },
    {
      "period_id": "fraser_interim_2022",
      "leader_name": "John Fraser",
      "leader_type": "interim",
      "n_polls": 19,
      "first_poll": "2022-11-05",
      "last_poll": "2023-11-28",
      "avg_on_lib": 25.07,
      "avg_lib_pc_margin": -12.75,
      "avg_lib_ndp_margin": -0.15,
      "firms": "abacus, angus_reid, counsel_public_affairs, innovative_research, mainstreet, pallas"
    },
    {
      "period_id": "crombie_regular",
      "leader_name": "Bonnie Crombie",
      "leader_type": "regular",
      "n_polls": 134,
      "first_poll": "2023-12-04",
      "last_poll": "2026-01-21",
      "avg_on_lib": 28.26,
      "avg_lib_pc_margin": -15.4,
      "avg_lib_ndp_margin": 9.74,
      "firms": "abacus, angus_reid, campaign_research, forum, innovative_research, ipsos, leger, liaison, mainstreet, nanos, north_poll, pallas, probe_research, relay, research_co, yorkville_strategies"
    },
    {
      "period_id": "fraser_interim_2026",
      "leader_name": "John Fraser",
      "leader_type": "interim",
      "n_polls": 11,
      "first_poll": "2026-01-24",
      "last_poll": "2026-04-26",
      "avg_on_lib": 33.36,
      "avg_lib_pc_margin": -6.73,
      "avg_lib_ndp_margin": 14.55,
      "firms": "abacus, ipsos, liaison, pallas"
    }
  ],
  "model_summary": [
    {
      "outcome": "on_lib",
      "coefficient": 0.6089120701301254,
      "standard_error": 0.6735583528004611,
      "t_stat": 0.9040227436842627,
      "n": 324,
      "note": "weighted OLS with firm/cycle/time controls"
    },
    {
      "outcome": "lib_pc_margin",
      "coefficient": 5.702264527713445,
      "standard_error": 1.1746564938627413,
      "t_stat": 4.854410253130355,
      "n": 324,
      "note": "weighted OLS with firm/cycle/time controls"
    },
    {
      "outcome": "lib_ndp_margin",
      "coefficient": -2.886299153405219,
      "standard_error": 0.9557350334001612,
      "t_stat": -3.019978396247342,
      "n": 324,
      "note": "weighted OLS with firm/cycle/time controls"
    }
  ]
}