{
  "meta": {
    "run_date": "2026-09-16",
    "race_id": "tx23_special_pending_2026",
    "title": "Texas's 23rd Congressional District Pending Special Election",
    "election_date": null,
    "n_simulations": 50000,
    "model_type": "provisional_party_control_v1",
    "pipeline_version": "1.0",
    "language": "en",
    "status": "vacant_pending_writ",
    "race_format": "party_control"
  },
  "district": {
    "state": "Texas",
    "district": "23rd Congressional District",
    "vacancy_reason": "The seat became vacant after Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned. The special-election date has not yet been set.",
    "district_context": {
      "house_2024_democratic_share": 37.73,
      "house_2024_republican_share": 62.27,
      "note": "The projection is party-level and remains provisional until the election calendar and candidate field are official."
    }
  },
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "us_dem",
      "name": "Democratic nominee",
      "party": "Democrat",
      "color": "#2563eb",
      "projected_vote_mean": 40.51,
      "win_probability": 0.1029,
      "top_two_probability": 1.0,
      "first_place_probability": 0.1029,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 28.13,
        "q10": 30.91,
        "q25": 35.43,
        "q50": 40.52,
        "q75": 45.61,
        "q90": 50.13,
        "q95": 52.94
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "us_rep",
      "name": "Republican nominee",
      "party": "Republican",
      "color": "#c62828",
      "projected_vote_mean": 59.49,
      "win_probability": 0.8971,
      "top_two_probability": 1.0,
      "first_place_probability": 0.8971,
      "vote_quantiles": {
        "q05": 47.06,
        "q10": 49.87,
        "q25": 54.39,
        "q50": 59.48,
        "q75": 64.57,
        "q90": 69.09,
        "q95": 71.87
      }
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "favorite_id": "us_rep",
    "favorite_name": "Republican nominee",
    "favorite_probability": 0.8971,
    "projected_margin_mean": 18.98,
    "projected_margin_quantiles": {
      "q05": -5.87,
      "q10": -0.25,
      "q25": 8.77,
      "q50": 18.96,
      "q75": 29.14,
      "q90": 38.18,
      "q95": 43.74
    },
    "upset_probability": 0.1029,
    "runoff_probability": 0.0,
    "majority_outright_probability": 0.8971,
    "likely_runoff_names": [
      "Democratic nominee",
      "Republican nominee"
    ],
    "likely_runoff_probability": 1.0,
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite": "Republican nominee",
    "if_likely_runoff_favorite_probability": 0.8971
  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "top_two_pairs": [
      {
        "pair": [
          "us_dem",
          "us_rep"
        ],
        "probability": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      {
        "label": "119th Congress district",
        "note": "The anchor uses the district that elected the departing member, not a later general-election redistricting plan."
      },
      {
        "label": "Candidate field pending",
        "note": "Candidate-specific effects are not applied before official qualification."
      },
      {
        "label": "Special-election uncertainty",
        "note": "The distribution is deliberately wider than a normal general-election projection because date, turnout and nominees remain unknown."
      },
      {
        "label": "A writ may never come",
        "note": "This projection assumes a special election is eventually called. No writ had been issued for either seat five months after the vacancy, and leaving a seat vacant until the regular general is a live outcome — not an oversight to be projected away."
      }
    ]
  },
  "pending": {
    "vacancy_date": "2026-04-14",
    "status": "vacant_pending_writ",
    "departing_member": "Tony Gonzales",
    "reason": "resignation",
    "days_vacant_without_writ": 155,
    "no_writ_fallback": {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "note": "If no writ is issued, the seat is not filled by a special election at all: it stays vacant until the regular general of November 3, 2026, whose winner is sworn in January 2027. That contest runs on the 2026 map and is covered by the House projection, not by this desk.",
      "house_projection": "/en/us/house/districts/48023/"
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "U.S. House Clerk — current vacancies",
      "url": "https://clerk.house.gov/Members/ViewVacancies"
    }
  ],
  "method_note": "A provisional party-control projection for a vacant seat before the writ, date and candidate field are known. It anchors to the 119th Congress district result and widens uncertainty for special-election turnout and candidate effects. It assumes a special election is eventually called — see pending.no_writ_fallback for what governs the seat if none is."
}