VoteScope
U.S. House special · June 2

CA-1 special primary forecast.

An English-only landing page for California's 1st Congressional District. This desk models the June 2 all-party special primary first, then the most likely August 4 runoff pairing if no one clears 50% outright.

Updated
50,000 simulations
Fundamentals-only
Primary favorite
--First-place probability
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Projected primary field

Candidate ranking

This model is built for a crowded all-party special. It focuses on who leads on June 2 and who reaches the likely August 4 runoff.

Runoff outlook

What matters most

Runoff probability--
Outright win chance--
Likely runoff pair--
Top-two pairs

Most likely June 2 outcomes

Conditional runoff view

If the expected pairing materializes

Model inputs

Main assumptions

Sources

Public reference points