Election & sports intelligence
A bureau of electoral and sports intelligence.
Not just who’s ahead. What’s moving, what’s fragile, and what the market is missing.
World Cup 2026 — live desk
One match. One trophy. Spain–Argentina.
🇦🇷 Argentina — 53.59%
Argentina came from behind to end England’s run; Spain shut out France. After 102 matches, the first 48-team World Cup is down to a final too close to call — 50,000 simulations put only seven points between them.
Today's headline number
Quacking
Lame-Duck Index · 7d: -5 · as of 2026-07-14
The flagship Vote-Scope instrument measures presidential drag ahead of the 2026 midterms. Higher = more lame duck. Currently in the Quacking zone.
Desks
Midterms 2026
United States Desk
Who controls Washington when the map stops being theoretical?House, Senate, special elections, presidential drag, and the market gaps that make U.S. politics readable day to day.
Federal + provincial
Canada Desk
Where is the Canadian map stable, and where is it only pretending?Federal, Quebec, Ontario, by-elections, riding risk, and the path from public polls to seat pressure.
Westminster + by-elections
United Kingdom Desk
How real is the Reform wave, seat by seat?650 constituencies calibrated against published MRPs, real by-election anchoring, and a special desk for Clacton — Farage under investigation, market checks included.
2027 Presidential
France Desk
Who reaches the runoff, and who wins it, in a field still taking shape?The 2027 presidential first: first-round scenarios, runoff matchups, declared field. Plus a full legislative model — 577 constituencies, calibrated withdrawal scenarios, and a bridge that carries presidential polling movement when direct legislative polls go quiet.
World Cup + NHL
Sports Scope
Who has the cleanest path, and who is riding a fragile streak?A sportier desk for playoff paths, goalie volatility, live scores, market checks, and tournament chaos.
Vote-Scope instruments
The numbers are public. The signal is ours.
Each index answers one question with one number you can follow over time — presidential drag, majority fragility, and where the model and the market disagree.
Lame-Duck Index
How politically constrained is the presidency right now?A named daily instrument for presidential drag, congressional risk, approval, and economic sentiment.
PowerCanada Goose Index
How much standing does Carney bring to the CUSMA table?A composite of Liberal electoral lead, seat projection, government approval, Nanos confidence, national mood, and mandate runway. Higher = stronger negotiating posture.
PowerCUSMA Showdown
Who leads the CUSMA negotiating table — Carney or Trump?Pits the Canada Goose Index against the Trump Lame-Duck Index in one leverage-gap number. Positive = Canada ahead.
PowerFraser Interim Index
Do Ontario Liberals poll better under Fraser as interim leader?Editorial indicator comparing Ontario Liberal polling under interim leader John Fraser vs permanent leaders. Score 0-100, 50 = neutral.
PowerBarrage Index
How solid is France’s republican front against the RN ahead of 2027?A composite of second-round polling margins, the VoteScope model verdict, transfer discipline, and far-right first-round pressure. Higher = the barrage holds; lower = rising risk of a far-right win.
Model vs market
Where we line up with the market — and where we don’t.
Polymarket and betting odds sit right beside the model, so you can see at a glance where the traders and the math agree, where the market is panicking, and where Vote-Scope sees an edge.
Refreshed daily, beside every projection.
Methodology after the signal
How the projections are built.
Every projection is built from public polls, an open Bayesian method, and the source data behind it — all on the page.
- All projections aggregate public polls in a Bayesian BSTS model — house effects measured and corrected, correlations estimated from the data, accuracy calibrated on past elections. Simulation only translates it all into seats.
- Prediction-market data (Polymarket) sits beside the model as a disagreement detector, not a substitute.
- Riding and constituency probabilities are conditioned on national and regional swings, then re-aggregated to seat distributions.
- Source data, methodology notes, and model outputs are public at each desk. Updated on a rolling basis as new polls arrive.