Editorial indicator · Ontario provincial

Fraser Interim Index

Do Ontario Liberals poll better when John Fraser holds the interim leadership? A single score summarises five years of topline evidence.

Index score · as of 2026-04-30

65.8 /100

Positive Fraser signal

324 polls · 2018-06-21 → 2026-04-26 · source: Ontario Wikipedia toplines (sidecar archive)

Interpretation

50 is neutral; above 50 means Fraser interim periods poll better after simple controls. This is an editorial indicator, not a projection input.

Five leadership periods

Interim 2018-06-21 → 2020-03-05

John Fraser

28.5 %
vs PC
-4.7%
vs NDP
+1.5%
Polls
25
Regular 2020-03-20 → 2022-06-20

Steven Del Duca

27.7 %
vs PC
-9.6%
vs NDP
+3.7%
Polls
135
Interim 2022-11-05 → 2023-11-28

John Fraser

25.1 %
vs PC
-12.8%
vs NDP
-0.1%
Polls
19
Regular 2023-12-04 → 2026-01-21

Bonnie Crombie

28.3 %
vs PC
-15.4%
vs NDP
+9.7%
Polls
134
Interim 2026-01-24 → 2026-04-26

John Fraser

33.4 %
vs PC
-6.7%
vs NDP
+14.6%
Polls
11

Methodology after the signal

Comparing interim to permanent: a controlled editorial scan.

The Fraser Interim Index is not a projection input. It is an editorial indicator built to answer one question: do Ontario Liberals poll better under Fraser's interim stewardship than under permanent leaders, after controlling for basic sources of variation?

  • Editorial intent: the index compares polling averages across five leadership periods (2018–2026) — three Fraser interim stints and two permanent-leader periods (Del Duca, Crombie). It is a signal, not proof of causality.
  • Data: 324 Ontario topline polls from June 2018 to April 2026, sourced from the Ontario Wikipedia sidecar archive. Each poll is tagged to the leadership period active at the date of fieldwork.
  • Method: weighted ordinary least squares with firm, electoral cycle, and time-trend controls. The coefficient on the Fraser-interim indicator is mapped to a 0–100 index (50 = neutral, above 50 = interim periods poll relatively better).
  • Reproducibility: the sidecar poll archive is preserved locally; the period tagging logic and OLS are documented in the analysis README. The index can be recomputed as new polls arrive.

Caveats

Uses preserved Ontario Wikipedia toplines when available. Interpret as an editorial signal, not proof of causality: interim periods overlap with post-election resets and leadership contests.

Source data

Raw index data (score, periods, model summary) is available in machine-readable JSON: /web_data/on-fraser-interim/latest.json →

Version 1.0 · Publication status: publishable_with_caveats