Canada election forecasts
Federal, Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and by-elections.
Six federal by-elections take place on December 7, 2026. Our forecast has two seats changing hands: Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, Brantford—Brant South.
Federal by-elections, December 7, 2026
| Riding | Won in 2025 | Favourite | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec | Liberal | Liberal | >99% |
| Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan | Conservative | Conservative | >99% |
| Scarborough NorthOntario | Liberal | Liberal | >99% |
| Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec | NDP | Liberal | 95% |
| Brantford—Brant SouthOntario | Conservative | Liberal | 86% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec | Bloc | Bloc | 72% |
Elections in Canada
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The Conservatives ahead: 56 projected seats of 93
Majority chance: 100%
The forecasts
| Election | Leading | Seats | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia Votes October 24, 2026 · All 93 ridings | Con | 56 / 93 | >99% |
| Quebec Results, October 5, 2026 · All 127 ridings | PQ | 59 / 127 | Minority |
| Canada (federal) No date set · All 343 ridings | Liberal | 230 / 343 | >99% |
| Ontario No date set · All 124 ridings | PC | 68 / 124 | 82% |
The indexes
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Canada Goose Index
Mark Carney’s political strength at home as CUSMA is reviewed.
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Canada–U.S. trade war
The balance of power between Ottawa and Washington in the trade war.
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Fraser Index (Ontario)
The political climate around Ontario’s interim Liberal leadership.
Prediction markets
Traders’ prices, shown next to our forecasts. They do not enter our calculations.
In this desk
In this section
- Federal
All 343 ridings, and how many seats each party can expect.
- Quebec
The October 2026 general election on the new 127-seat map.
- Ontario
Queen’s Park after 2025, riding by riding.
- Federal by-elections
Upcoming by-elections, seat by seat.
- Ontario by-elections
Provincial by-elections, modelled on their own local terrain.
- Quebec candidate barometer
Who is running where.
- Canada Goose Index
The prime minister’s standing, on one scale you can follow over time.
Methodology after the signal
One method for federal and provincial forecasts
Each forecast starts from an average of public polls, corrected for each pollster’s usual lean, then simulates the election riding by riding.
- A recent poll with a large sample, from a pollster with a good record, counts for more.
- Ridings move together when opinion shifts in the province or the country; that is what produces the seat ranges.
- Majority: 172 of 343 seats federally, 63 of 124 in Ontario, 47 of 93 in British Columbia.
- For a by-election, the model also weighs the previous result, the outgoing member and the riding’s profile.