Canada Desk
Where is the Canadian map stable, and where is it only pretending?
Federal, Quebec, Ontario, and by-elections — read race by race, from public polls down to the seat.
CUSMA · Live instruments
Canada Goose Index · Mark Carney
74.8 /100
On the Wing
Carney's domestic political strength in Canada — the hand behind the CUSMA review.
CUSMA Showdown · Goose vs Lame Duck
+44.5
Canada commands the table
Leverage gap vs the Trump Lame-Duck Index.
Latest from the Canada desk
Federal projection — as of 2026-07-14
Based on 259 polls · 50,000 simulations
Liberal
199 seats projected
Majority probability: 99% · Largest party: 100%
Conservative
110 seats projected
Majority threshold: 172 / 343 seats
Federal projection
Liberal
Majority probability: 99% · Largest party: 100%
Provincial · Québec
Parti Quebecois
Majority probability: 17%
Provincial · Ontario
Progressive Conservative
Majority probability: 19%
By-elections
Latest by-elections →
Individual by-election desks with fundamentals-based projections, historical results, and resolved race archives.
Editorial indicator
Fraser Interim Index
Positive Fraser signal
Methodology after the signal
Three jurisdictions. One projection standard.
Federal, Quebec, and Ontario projections share a common Bayesian BSTS pipeline: polls are aggregated with house effects measured and corrected, between-party correlations estimated from the data, and accuracy calibrated on past elections — with the simulation only translating votes into seat distributions and riding-level probabilities at the end.
- Polls are sourced from Elections Canada-registered firms and weighted by recency, sample size, and firm track record.
- Riding-level probabilities are conditioned on national and regional swings, then re-aggregated to total seat distributions.
- Majority thresholds are modeled explicitly: federal at 172/338, Quebec at 64/127, Ontario at 63/124.
- By-election projections use a fundamentals model — incumbency, margin history, demographics — updated as campaign data arrives.