Federal by-election · Quebec · expected

Leaving to campaign elsewhere.

In 2015, before Guilbeault, the Liberals here ran 12.3 points BELOW their Quebec average. He turned that into a lead. A real but modest share of the seat is personal — and the vacancy is not yet effective.

Seat vacant · writ not yet issued

The Vote-Scope forecast

Projected vote share (10th–90th percentile, median marked)

Liberal

49.9 % Chance of winning: > 99 %

NDP

17.2 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

Bloc Québécois

15.8 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

Conservative

12.8 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

Green

3.6 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

Baseline from the riding’s current general-election projection, minus a modest personal-vote correction, plus the measured by-election turnout residual.

How this projection is built

Personal vote removed

3 points stripped from the Liberal baseline — the share that belonged to Steven Guilbeault rather than to the party.

54.1 % → 51.1 %

2025 result — the seat as it was won

Liberal 51.5 %

NDP 18.6 %

Bloc Québécois 15.2 %

Conservative 9.1 %

Green 2.7 %

64.0 %

Why this by-election exists

Guilbeault announced he intends to resign his seat during the summer of 2026 to work on climate change outside Parliament.
Liberal share versus the Quebec-wide Liberal vote: −12.3 points in 2015 (before him), +6.8 in 2019, +2.8 in 2021, +8.4 in 2025.
Because the seat started well below the party average, a real but modest part of the current lead is personal.
No writ can issue until the resignation actually takes effect.

No polling day yet

Under the Canada Elections Act the writ must issue between 11 and 180 days after the Speaker notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy.

Sources