Spain Desk · General election, November 29
Spain general election: polls and seat projection
Sunday, November 29, 2026. Pedro Sánchez announced the dissolution of the Cortes on October 5; the decree is published in the official gazette (BOE) on October 6. Election calendar
On today's polls, PP and Vox win an outright majority in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Vote share |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 131 | 118–145 | 31.1% |
| PSOE | 105 | 93–118 | 26.1% |
| Vox | 68 | 57–79 | 19.1% |
| ERC | 10 | 7–13 | 2.5% |
| EH Bildu | 7 | 3–11 | 1.4% |
| Sumar | 7 | 5–11 | 5.8% |
| Others | 19 | 6.3% |
176 seats for a majority, out of 350
Build your own scenario with the D’Hondt simulator
Updated 2 November 2026 · latest poll 2026-11-01
A snap election against the polls
Sánchez goes to the country with the numbers against him.
- PSOE
- 105 seats121 in 2023 · range 93–118
- The bloc that re-elected Sánchez in 2023
- 143 seats179 in 2023 · majority in fewer than 1 of 100 simulations
- PP + Vox
- 201 seatsrange 188–213 · majority in more than 99 of 100
- PP alone
- 131 seatsoutright majority in fewer than 1 of 100
On today's polls, the PSOE would lose about 16 seats and the majority that re-elected him in 2023 would be out of reach. The campaign opens on November 13: the last chance to move these numbers.
The split left of the PSOE
Running apart, Sumar and Podemos win 7 seats. Together, on the same votes, they would win 16.
D'Hondt punishes mid-sized parties that split in small provinces. The gap (9 seats) is bigger than most groups in Congress.
Housing · the issue behind the snap election
Housing went from 2.5% in 2022 to 44.1% in 2026: it is now what worries Spaniards most.
Share of Spaniards naming housing among the country’s top three problems, CIS barometer month by month. In October 2026: 55.7%, ahead of the economy and immigration. 33.8% say it affects them personally.
Dashed line: October 2, 2026, Congress votes down the housing decrees.
See the data by year
| Year | Average |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.8 % |
| 2016 | 1.5 % |
| 2017 | 1.5 % |
| 2018 | 2.1 % |
| 2019 | 2.9 % |
| 2020 | 1.4 % |
| 2021 | 1.6 % |
| 2022 | 2.5 % |
| 2023 | 7.4 % |
| 2024 | 14.8 % |
| 2025 | 32.3 % |
| 2026 | 44.1 % |
Source: CIS monthly barometers (multiple-answer question: up to three problems). CIS 3582
What worries Spaniards most (CIS, October 2026)
- Housing 55.7 %
- Immigration 20.9 %
- Economy 20.3 %
- Health care 14.4 %
- Politicians 10.1 %
- Unemployment 9.6 %
- Corruption 6.7 %
Which party would handle housing best?
| January 2025 | September 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 20.1 % | 18.5 % |
| PP | 18.0 % | 14.4 % |
| Vox | 14.1 % | 14.4 % |
| Sumar | 6.3 % | not published |
| Podemos | 4.0 % | not published |
| None | 23.8 % | 22.6 % |
Nobody convinces: “none” is the most common answer (22.6%). The PSOE still leads (18.5%) but is down 1.6 points since January 2025; the PP is down 3.6 and Vox holds (14.4%). So far the crisis has no clear winner.
Second model · Orbit (beta)
Orbit, our experimental model, reaches the same conclusion: PP and Vox win a majority in 91 of 100 simulations.
Orbit uses the same polls with different mathematics: it treats opinion as a position moving on a sphere rather than as an average. It is still in beta: we publish it for comparison, and a 50/50 mix with our main model, Harfang des neiges, gives a third reading. On eve-of-election polls, Orbit would have misplaced 14 seats in 2023 and 10 in November 2019.
| Party | Harfang des neiges | Orbit (beta) | 50/50 mix |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 131 118–145 | 125 102–149 | 129 108–146 |
| PSOE | 105 93–118 | 109 87–132 | 107 90–125 |
| Vox | 68 57–79 | 74 53–96 | 70 56–88 |
| Sumar | 7 5–11 | 8 3–17 | 8 4–13 |
| Podemos | 0 0–1 | 0 0–1 | 0 0–1 |
| ERC | 10 7–13 | 8 5–13 | 9 6–13 |
| EH Bildu | 7 3–11 | 6 1–9 | 7 1–10 |
| Junts | 4 1–8 | 4 0–8 | 4 0–8 |
| PNV | 4 1–6 | 3 0–6 | 3 0–6 |
| SALF | 0 0–1 | 0 0–3 | 0 0–2 |
| PP + Vox majority | >99 % | 91 % | 95 % |
How we compare
The other forecasts reach the same sum: PP and Vox above 176.
We only publish figures checked at the original source, with their date and link. A probability only appears when the source computes one.
| Source | Date | PP | PSOE | Vox | PP+Vox | PP+Vox majority odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote-Scope · Harfang des neiges | 2 Nov | 131 | 105 | 68 | 201 | >99 % |
| Orbit (beta) | 2 Nov | 125 | 109 | 74 | 200 | 91 % |
| The Objective · Votómetro (Redlines) | 3 Oct | 140 | 107 | 65 | 205 | 94 % |
Election calendar
Key dates up to November 29
Dates set by electoral law from the publication of the decree in the official gazette.
| Date | Step |
|---|---|
| Tuesday, 6 October 2026 | Dissolution decree published in the BOE |
| Friday, 16 October 2026 | Last day to register coalitions |
| Monday, 26 October 2026 | Candidate lists close (open from October 21) |
| Monday, 2 November 2026 | Candidate lists proclaimed |
| Friday, 13 November 2026 | Campaign opens (until November 27) |
| Tuesday, 24 November 2026 | Publishing polls in Spain is banned from this day |
| Saturday, 28 November 2026 | Day of reflection |
| Sunday, 29 November 2026 | Polling day |
Province by province
Where the last seat is decided
In these provinces the last seat changes hands on a handful of votes. That is where the majority is won.
Barcelona 32 seats
PSOE 11ERC 6PP 4Vox 4Junts 3Sumar 2Aliança Catalana 2
Seat in play for CUP (26 %)
Lleida 4 seats
PSOE 1ERC 1Junts 1Aliança Catalana 1
Seat in play for PP (24 %), Junts (57 %), Aliança Catalana (58 %)
Madrid 38 seats
PP 17PSOE 9Vox 9Sumar 3
Girona 6 seats
PSOE 2Vox 1ERC 1Junts 1Aliança Catalana 1
Seat in play for PP (23 %), Vox (57 %)
Tarragona 6 seats
PSOE 2ERC 2PP 1Vox 1
Seat in play for Junts (36 %)
Sevilla 12 seats
PP 4PSOE 4Vox 3Adelante Andalucía 1
Seat in play for Sumar (43 %), Adelante Andalucía (72 %)
Alicante/Alacant 12 seats
PP 5PSOE 4Vox 3
Seat in play for Sumar (34 %)
Navarra 5 seats
UPN 4PSOE 1
Seat in play for PP (66 %), Vox (23 %), EH Bildu (69 %), UPN (61 %)
Gipuzkoa 6 seats
EH Bildu 3PSOE 2PNV 1
Seat in play for PP (30 %)
Pontevedra 7 seats
PP 4PSOE 2BNG 1
Seat in play for Vox (22 %)
Las Palmas 8 seats
PSOE 3PP 2Vox 2CC 1
Seat in play for CC (69 %)
Araba/Álava 4 seats
PP 1PSOE 1EH Bildu 1PNV 1
Seat in play for PNV (47 %)
All 52 constituencies
| Province | Seats | Most likely split | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madrid | 38 | PP 17PSOE 9Vox 9Sumar 3 | 2 % |
| Barcelona | 32 | PSOE 11ERC 6PP 4Vox 4Junts 3Sumar 2Aliança Catalana 2 | <1 % |
| Valencia/València | 16 | PP 6PSOE 5Vox 4Sumar 1 | 17 % |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | PP 5PSOE 4Vox 3 | 18 % |
| Sevilla | 12 | PP 4PSOE 4Vox 3Adelante Andalucía 1 | 13 % |
| Málaga | 11 | PP 5PSOE 3Vox 3 | 21 % |
| Murcia | 10 | PP 4Vox 4PSOE 2 | 33 % |
| A Coruña | 8 | PP 4PSOE 2Vox 1BNG 1 | 20 % |
| Balears, Illes | 8 | PP 4PSOE 2Vox 2 | 24 % |
| Bizkaia | 8 | EH Bildu 3PSOE 2PNV 2PP 1 | 17 % |
| Cádiz | 8 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 2Adelante Andalucía 1 | 28 % |
| Las Palmas | 8 | PSOE 3PP 2Vox 2CC 1 | 31 % |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 8 | PP 4PSOE 3CC 1 | 39 % |
| Asturias | 7 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 2 | 33 % |
| Granada | 7 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 2 | 61 % |
| Pontevedra | 7 | PP 4PSOE 2BNG 1 | 32 % |
| Zaragoza | 7 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 2 | 56 % |
| Almería | 6 | PP 3Vox 2PSOE 1 | 51 % |
| Córdoba | 6 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 1 | 51 % |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | EH Bildu 3PSOE 2PNV 1 | 19 % |
| Girona | 6 | PSOE 2Vox 1ERC 1Junts 1Aliança Catalana 1 | 16 % |
| Tarragona | 6 | PSOE 2ERC 2PP 1Vox 1 | 24 % |
| Toledo | 6 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 2 | 51 % |
| Badajoz | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 79 % |
| Cantabria | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 49 % |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 53 % |
| Huelva | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 72 % |
| Jaén | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 73 % |
| Navarra | 5 | UPN 4PSOE 1 | 14 % |
| Valladolid | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 47 % |
| Albacete | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 81 % |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | PP 1PSOE 1EH Bildu 1PNV 1 | 30 % |
| Burgos | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 76 % |
| Cáceres | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 56 % |
| Ciudad Real | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 80 % |
| La Rioja | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 42 % |
| León | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 73 % |
| Lleida | 4 | PSOE 1ERC 1Junts 1Aliança Catalana 1 | 25 % |
| Lugo | 4 | PP 3PSOE 1 | 62 % |
| Ourense | 4 | PP 3PSOE 1 | 65 % |
| Salamanca | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 90 % |
| Ávila | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 48 % |
| Cuenca | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 76 % |
| Guadalajara | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 92 % |
| Huesca | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 57 % |
| Palencia | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 47 % |
| Segovia | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 42 % |
| Teruel | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 69 % |
| Zamora | 3 | PP 2PSOE 1 | 51 % |
| Soria | 2 | PP 1PSOE 1 | 84 % |
| Ceuta | 1 | PP 1 | 57 % |
| Melilla | 1 | PP 1 | >99 % |
Why trust it
Tested on past elections before going live.
Using eve-of-election polls, this method would have misplaced 12 of 350 seats in 2023 and 13 in November 2019. The real result landed inside our ranges 92 times out of 100.
In the Clacton by-election (U.K., August 13, 2026) we projected Nigel Farage at 62.6%: he won 63.3%, with Count Binface second, as forecast.
We were among the first models to flag that Texas could tip toward the Democrats.
Before the 2026 international football tournament, our model had Spain as title favourite (1st of 48 teams). Spain won the final.
In this desk
In this section
- Congress
All 350 seats projected province by province, and the calendar to the November 29 vote.
- Housing tracker
How housing became Spain’s top worry, and which party voters trust on it.
- D’Hondt simulator
Set each party’s vote and see the 350 seats fall province by province.
Methodology after the signal
How it works
A polling average, carried into every province and allocated under the real electoral law, thousands of times.
- Published polls go through a Bayesian time-series model (BSTS), the same one behind all our forecasts, after correcting each pollster for its measured lean. Third-party re-estimates of CIS data are left out.
- The national vote is carried into each province from the 2023 general election. New parties start from their latest result: SALF from the 2024 European election, Aliança Catalana and Adelante Andalucía from their regional elections.
- Each simulation adds the real error of Spanish polls (measured 2015–2023), a regional effect and a provincial effect, then allocates seats under D'Hondt with the 3% threshold. 50,000 simulations.
- Polling day: Sunday, 29 November 2026. Seats per province are computed from INE population until the official BOE allocation is published.