2028 Presidential · Invisible primary

The White House race begins in 2028.

Long before the first vote, the race is measured in endorsements and primary polling. Here is where the Democratic and Republican fields stand — and the electoral-college map.

Run of 2026-09-16 349 primary polls Quality-weighted
Republican JD Vance 40.1% leads
Democratic Kamala Harris 26.3% leads
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Methodology →

It is mid-2026: the 2028 U.S. presidential race is in its "invisible primary" — the contest for endorsements, money and name recognition, long before a single vote. Based on our quality-weighted aggregate of 349 national primary polls (run of 2026-09-16), JD Vance dominates the Republican field at 40.1%, while Kamala Harris leads a far more open Democratic field at 26.3%.

The electoral-college map below shows the certified 2024 result (Trump 312 / Harris 226) as a reference point — NOT a 2028 projection. The general-election model switches on once Democrat-versus-Republican matchup polling accumulates, from 2027.

2028 primaries — where the fields stand

Quality-weighted average of national primary polls (recency, sample size, house effect, intra-firm decay, concentration cap). Per-candidate share across the polls that test them — not a renormalized field.

  1. 1Donald TrumpMAGAIneligible45.5%‡→
  2. 2JD VanceMAGAProbable40.1%→
  3. 3Marco RubioEstablishmentTested19.9%▼ 1.4
  4. 4Donald Trump Jr.MAGATested12.9%▲ 0.9
  5. 5Ron DeSantisMAGATested7.3%→
  6. 6Robert F. KennedyMAGATested4.3%→
  7. 7Ted CruzMAGATested3.1%→
  8. 8Nikki HaleyEstablishmentTested2.7%▼ 0.7
  9. 9Greg AbbottUnalignedTested2.4%▲ 1.3
  10. 10Vivek G. RamaswamyMAGATested2.3%▲ 0.3
  11. 11Mike PenceUnalignedTested1.9%→
  12. 12Tucker Swanson McNear CarlsonMAGATested1.8%▼ 0.8

Undecided / other: 11.7%

‡ The 22nd Amendment bars Trump from a third term, but pollsters test the scenario too often to omit — his figure is the average of only the polls that include him (so not comparable to the rest of the field). See the third-term proposal.

Field scenarios

What if a dominant figure doesn’t run? Shares renormalized among the scenario’s active candidates.

Democrats — open field

  1. 1 Harris 33.7%
  2. 2 Newsom 19.8%
  3. 3 Buttigieg 15.7%
  4. 4 Ocasio-Cortez 12.8%
  5. 5 Shapiro 7.0%

Democrats — without Harris

  1. 1 Newsom 29.9%
  2. 2 Buttigieg 23.7%
  3. 3 Ocasio-Cortez 19.4%
  4. 4 Shapiro 10.6%
  5. 5 Booker 6.5%

Republicans — open field

  1. 1 Vance 51.9%
  2. 2 Rubio 25.7%
  3. 3 DeSantis 9.4%
  4. 4 Cruz 4.0%
  5. 5 Haley 3.5%

Republicans — without Vance

  1. 1 Rubio 53.5%
  2. 2 DeSantis 19.5%
  3. 3 Cruz 8.2%
  4. 4 Haley 7.3%
  5. 5 Ramaswamy 6.1%

Early states

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada — the first contests on the calendar.

New Hampshire

Vance 38.0%
Buttigieg 23.9%

South Carolina

Vance 46.0%

Nevada

Vance 63.3%
Newsom 36.9%

The electoral college

Electoral votes — 2024 reference mapHover a state
Democratic 226 Republican 312

Maine and Nebraska split by district (ME-2 → Republican, NE-2 → Democratic in 2024).

Certified 2024 result — reference baseline, NOT a 2028 projection.

Market — 2028 U.S. presidential

Trader-implied probabilities, an independent benchmark beside the Vote-Scope forecast.

Live odds via Polymarket