Vote-Scope USA · Live instrument
The Trump Drag & Lame-Duck Index.
A daily composite score measuring how much a president can still get done. Four weighted components, 70 years of back-data, zero opinion. The duck rises as the presidency floats out.
Today's reading
69.7/100▼ 5.0 · 7-dayNet approval
-19.1ppNYT trackerDays to midterms
109Nov 3, 2026Methodology
How we measure the quack.
The Index is a composite score, not an opinion. Four components, all based on publicly available polling and economic data — the same sources available for presidents back to Truman. Higher means lamer.
Component Breakdown
Four signals, one number.
Each component is public, weighted, and visible. The page should feel like an instrument you can inspect, not a blog paragraph asking for trust.
40% weight
Net Approval
-19.1ppStrong drag on LDI25% weight
Generic Ballot Climate
D+5.3ppStrong drag on LDI20% weight
Congressional Control Risk
House 60% / Senate 58%Moderate drag15% weight
Economic Sentiment
UMCSENT 50Moderate dragHistorical Series
Since inauguration.
Scrub through the series, then compare the current trajectory with past second-term presidents using the same instrument language.
Selected date
Jul 14, 2026
- LDI
- 69.7
- Net approval
- -19.1pp
Midterms 2026
What the quack means for November.
The LDI is not isolated from the rest of Vote-Scope. Congressional control feeds the index, and the index should pull readers deeper into the House, Senate, and U.S. desk instruments.
U.S. House
218 majorityprojected Democratic seats
- Dem majority
- 61%
- GOP majority
- 40%
U.S. Senate
51 majorityprojected Democratic seats
- Dem majority
- 58%
- GOP majority
- 42%