The Trump Drag & Lame-Duck Index.

How we measure the quack.

The Index is a composite score, not an opinion. Four components, all based on publicly available polling and economic data — the same sources available for presidents back to Truman. Higher means lamer.

Four signals, one number.

Each component is public, weighted, and visible. The page should feel like an instrument you can inspect, not a blog paragraph asking for trust.

Since inauguration.

Scrub through the series, then compare the current trajectory with past second-term presidents using the same instrument language.

What the quack means for November.

The LDI is not isolated from the rest of Vote-Scope. Congressional control feeds the index, and the index should pull readers deeper into the House, Senate, and U.S. desk instruments.

Where the quack meets the border.

The Lame-Duck Index is one half of the CUSMA leverage gap: Canada Goose Index minus Trump’s residual strength (100 − LDI). With 50% tariffs in force, the trade-war desk puts that gap next to live Polymarket and Kalshi prices and polling from both countries.

Canada strikes back. C$27.6B in counter-tariffs now hit U.S. goods.