Vote-Scope USA · Live instrument
The Trump Drag & Lame-Duck Index.
A daily composite score measuring how much a president can still get done. Four weighted components, 70 years of back-data, zero opinion. The duck rises as the presidency floats out.
Today's reading
84/100▲ 1.0 · 7-dayNet approval
-23.6ppNYT trackerDays to midterms
1Nov 3, 2026Methodology
How we measure the quack.
The Index is a composite score, not an opinion. Four components, all based on publicly available polling and economic data — the same sources available for presidents back to Truman. Higher means lamer.
Component Breakdown
Four signals, one number.
Each component is public, weighted and shown below, so you can check every number yourself.
40% weight
Net Approval
-23.6ppStrong drag on LDI25% weight
Generic Ballot Climate
D+8.0ppStrong drag on LDI20% weight
Congressional Control Risk
House 98% / Senate 79%Strong drag on LDI15% weight
Economic Sentiment
UMCSENT 48Moderate dragHistorical Series
Since inauguration.
Scrub through the series, then compare the current trajectory with past second-term presidents using the same instrument language.
Selected date
Nov 2, 2026
- LDI
- 83.9
- Net approval
- -23.6pp
Midterms 2026
What the quack means for November.
The index draws on the fight for Congress. For the seat-by-seat picture, see the House and Senate forecasts.
U.S. House
218 majorityprojected Democratic seats
Median of simulations: 246
- Dem control
- 98%
- GOP control
- 2%
U.S. Senate
51 majorityprojected Democratic seats
- Dem control
- 79%
- GOP control
- 21%
The large figure counts the seats where Democrats are favoured, as on our House and Senate pages. The median of our simulations also counts their chances in seats they are not favoured to win; it is the figure most models show, including The Economist. When a wave is building, it runs higher.
Senate: a 50-50 tie counts as Republican control, since Vice President Vance breaks ties.
Trade-war desk
Where the quack meets the border.
The Lame-Duck Index is one half of the CUSMA leverage gap: Canada Goose Index minus Trump’s residual strength (100 − LDI). With 50% tariffs in force, the trade-war desk puts that gap next to live Polymarket and Kalshi prices and polling from both countries.
The trade war widens. Bans start September 29 — and Canada turns to Europe.
Leverage gap
+71.2 Canada commands the table