2027 Presidential · Scenario model
France votes in April 2027.
Our model does not project seats but lineups: for each configuration of candidates, first-round voting intention and the likely outcome of the runoff. Reference scenario: Le Pen / Philippe / Melenchon / Zemmour.
Marine Le Pen wins — 50.9% vs 49.1%
Based on our aggregation of 221 polls (run of 2026-07-14), in the most-polled lineup Marine Le Pen — the officially declared National Rally candidate — leads the first round at 26.9%, ahead of Edouard Philippe at 21.7%. Both would advance to the runoff.
In the runoff, our forecast has Marine Le Pen ahead at 50.9% against Edouard Philippe (49.1%), based on head-to-head polls and historical transfers. This is our best central estimate for that lineup, surrounded by a range of plausible outcomes; the 2027 campaign is just starting and the field of 8 declared candidates keeps shifting.
Live instrument
Barrage Index — 29.9/100 · Strained
Does France’s republican front still hold against the RN?
Legislative — if dissolved today
p(absolute RN majority): 45% under a 2024-level republican front
French legislative polling is event-driven — it all but disappears outside crises. The model therefore anchors its projection to the last direct poll (Oct. 2025) and applies the movement of continuously-measured presidential intentions: the differential bridge. The 577 constituencies are then simulated with transfers and withdrawals calibrated on the 1,646 runoffs of 2017-2024, across three republican-front scenarios.
Official 2022 results
The 2022 map, constituency by constituency
Leading bloc and leading candidate in round one, the Macron / Le Pen runoff in round two: all 566 constituencies, actual Ministry of the Interior results.
Explore the lineups
Each lineup is a candidate configuration actually tested by pollsters. Switch to compare projected first and second rounds.
First round
Mean voting intention ± model uncertainty. The top two advance to the runoff.
Projected runoff
Vote transfer estimated from duel polls and historical transfer patterns.
Marine Le Pen wins · Probability of this matchup : 78%
Candidates tracked
Status as of 2026-07-14. Click a candidate for their profile — bio, polls and matchups. The projection adjusts when a candidate declares.
- Edouard Philippe Centre-right (Horizons) Declared
- Jean-Luc Melenchon Radical left (LFI) Declared
- Bruno Retailleau Right (LR) Declared
- Marine Le Pen Far right (RN) Declared
- Gabriel Attal Centre Declared
- Nathalie Arthaud Far left Declared
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Sovereignist Declared
- Xavier Bertrand Right (LR) Declared
- Jordan Bardella Far right (RN) Probable
- Raphael Glucksmann Social democrats (PS) Probable
