2027 Presidential · Scenario model

France votes in April 2027.

Our model does not project seats but lineups: for each configuration of candidates, first-round voting intention and the likely outcome of the runoff. Reference scenario: Le Pen / Melenchon / Philippe / Glucksmann.

Run of 2026-09-16 280 polls aggregated 12 scenarios

6 polls on this configuration · latest 6 days ago

First round — leaders
Marine Le Pen 32.9% Jean-Luc Melenchon 15.6%
Projected runoff

Marine Le Pen wins — 62.9% vs 37.1%

Explore the lineups ↓ Methodology →
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Based on our aggregation of 280 polls (run of 2026-09-16), in the most-polled lineup Marine Le Pen — the officially declared National Rally candidate — leads the first round at 32.9%, ahead of Jean-Luc Melenchon at 15.6%. Both would advance to the runoff.

In the runoff, our forecast has Marine Le Pen ahead at 62.9% against Jean-Luc Melenchon (37.1%), based on head-to-head polls and historical transfers. This is our best central estimate for that lineup, surrounded by a range of plausible outcomes; the 2027 campaign is just starting and the field of 11 declared candidates keeps shifting.

Market — winner of the 2027 French presidential election

Trader-implied probabilities, shown as an independent benchmark beside the Vote-Scope forecast.

View on Polymarket →Live odds via Polymarket

Live instrument

Barrage Index — 16.4/100 · Breached

Does France’s republican front still hold against the RN?

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Legislative — if dissolved today

p(absolute RN majority): 45% under a 2024-level republican front

French legislative polling is event-driven — it all but disappears outside crises. The model therefore anchors its projection to the last direct poll (Oct. 2025) and applies the movement of continuously-measured presidential intentions: the differential bridge. The 577 constituencies are then simulated with transfers and withdrawals calibrated on the 1,646 runoffs of 2017-2024, across three republican-front scenarios.

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Official 2022 results

The 2022 map, constituency by constituency

Leading bloc and leading candidate in round one, the Macron / Le Pen runoff in round two: all 566 constituencies, actual Ministry of the Interior results.

See the map →

Explore the lineups

Each lineup is a candidate configuration actually tested by pollsters. Switch to compare projected first and second rounds.

6 polls on this configuration · latest 6 days ago

First round

Mean voting intention ± model uncertainty. The top two advance to the runoff.

  • Marine Le PenAdvances32.9%
  • Jean-Luc MelenchonAdvances15.6%
  • Edouard Philippe14.4%
  • Raphael Glucksmann9.8%
  • Gabriel Attal7.4%
  • Bruno Retailleau7.4%
  • Eric Zemmour4.0%
  • Marine Tondelier3.4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.1%
  • Fabien Roussel2.1%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.9%

Projected runoff

Vote transfer estimated from duel polls and historical transfer patterns.

Jean-Luc MelenchonMarine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen wins · Probability of this matchup : 60%

Candidates tracked

Status as of 2026-09-16. Click a candidate for their profile — bio, polls and matchups. The projection adjusts when a candidate declares.

All candidates →

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