House 2026
Chance of a D majority : 100 %
House projection →United States Desk
Who controls Washington when the map stops being theoretical?
House, Senate, governors and the races still filling in the map — projected from public polls and updated as new numbers land.
Midterms · November 3, 2026
Three chambers on one ballot.
The House, a third of the Senate and 36 governorships are decided the same night. Everything else on this page feeds these three numbers.
— days to go
Senate 2026
Chance of a D majority : 62 %
Senate projection →Governors 2026
36 races on the ballot · 18 open seats.
Governor projection →On the road to November
The races still filling in the map.
Primaries 2026
Next: Delaware
322 nominations settled · 140 races still awaiting official results.
Primary tracker →Special elections under way
Pending U.S. House special · Date TBD
FL‑20 is vacant. The projection is live.
Florida has not yet called the special election. Until the date and nominees are official, Vote-Scope publishes a deliberately wide party-level forecast anchore…
Pending U.S. House special · Date TBD
TX‑23 is vacant. The projection is live.
Texas has not yet called the special election. The initial desk projects eventual party control on the 119th Congress boundaries, with extra uncertainty for tur…
Proprietary indexes
Our own instruments.
Lame-Duck Index
Fully Lame
7-day delta : +5.8
Full index →U.S. Latino Radar
The House and Senate races where Latino electoral weight, competitiveness, and control of Congress intersect — ranked on a 100-point scale.
Open the radar →CUSMA Showdown
+61.9
Leverage gap — Canada commands the table
Goose vs Lame-Duck →Beyond 2026
Presidential 2028 · The invisible primary
REP Vance 40 % · DEM Harris 26 %
Primary fields plus the electoral-college map.
Presidential desk →Archive
Special elections already decided (5)
Kept for the record — these races are over.
- Blair won. We had Scott. — 2026-08-25
- Wahab won CA‑14. — 2026-08-18
- Gallagher cleared 50%. No runoff. — 2026-06-02
- NJ-11 result archive. — 2026-04-16
- Fuller won. We called it. — 2026-04-07
Prediction markets
What the markets say alongside the model
Model vs Market
Where the model and the market disagree.
Control odds, race-level confidence, and the moments traders panic — set right next to our projection, so the gaps are easy to spot.
Vote-Scope model Vote-Scope
Polymarket / odds Market
Polymarket benchmarks, refreshed daily next to every projection.
In this desk
Everything this desk publishes.
- President
Electoral college, 270 to win, and the invisible primary in both parties.
- House
All 435 districts, redistricting included, through the 2026 midterms.
- Senate
The seats up in 2026 and the arithmetic of control.
- Primaries
Live calls and county results across the 2026 primary calendar.
- Latino Radar
Where the Latino vote is moving, district by district.
- Lame-Duck Index
How much presidential weight is left before the midterms.
Methodology after the signal
How the U.S. projections are built.
House and Senate control, seat fragility, and market disagreement — each built from public polls in a bias-corrected Bayesian model, calibrated on past results, with the simulation only translating votes into seats. All open on the page.
- House and Senate polls are sourced from the NYT tracker and aggregated with a Bayesian BSTS model, then run through district- and state-level simulations.
- District and statewide polls anchor their own seat: a race with recent local polling is pulled toward it, and polls older than 180 days are dropped rather than faded.
- The Lame-Duck Index (LDI) combines presidential approval, economic indicators, congressional district margins, and prediction-market odds into a single 0–100 drag score.
- Special elections use a fundamentals model: incumbency, prior margin, candidate profile, and any available local polling.
- Prediction-market benchmarks (Polymarket) are shown alongside model output as an independent disagreement signal, updated daily.