Resolved special primary · June 2, 2026

CA-1 primary archive.

Resolved archive of the June 2, 2026 top-two special primary. Republican James Gallagher finished first (~47%) and Democrat Mike McGuire second (~38%) — the two advance to the special general in this safely Republican district. Vote-Scope's fundamentals-only model projected the field before election day.

Updated 2026-06-02 50,000 simulations Fundamentals-only

Primary favorite

95.7%James Gallagher first-place probability

Runoff probability

98.5%2026-08-04

Outright win chance

1.5%50% + 1

Likely runoff pair

James Gallagher vs Mike McGuire99.6% top-two path

Updated 2026-06-02 · 50,000 simulations

Projected primary field

Candidate ranking

Projected primary vote, top-two probability and first-place odds across the simulated all-party field.

James Gallagher

Republican

Projected vote
41.3%
Top two
100%
First
95.7%

Mike McGuire

Democrat

Projected vote
29.6%
Top two
100%
First
4.3%

Audrey Denney

Democrat

Projected vote
15.5%
Top two
0%
First
0.0%

Jot Thiara

Republican

Projected vote
7.8%
Top two
0%
First
0.0%

Richard Montgomery

No party preference

Projected vote
5.7%
Top two
0%
First
0.0%

TOP-TWO PAIRS

Most likely top-two outcomes

James Gallagher vs Mike McGuire99.6%
Audrey Denney vs James Gallagher0.4%

CONDITIONAL RUNOFF VIEW

Conditional runoff view

James Gallagher would be favored in the expected runoff pairing at about 56.9%, while that August race still depends on who survives the crowded June 2 field.

1st Congressional District

District context

Special election to fill the CA-1 House vacancy after Rep. Doug LaMalfa left Congress.

R 61.0%D 39.0%

The district remains structurally Republican-leaning, but the June 2 special is a crowded all-party primary.

fundamentals_special_primary_v1

Model note

No public district polling average is used here. This is a fundamentals-only special-primary projection built from district baseline, candidate-field structure and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

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MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

Republican district baseline

Recent federal results make a Republican first-place finish the default unless the Democratic field consolidates unusually well.

Certified five-candidate all-party primary

The official ballot has two Democrats, two Republicans and one no-party-preference candidate. The main uncertainty is whether Gallagher can clear 50% or faces a top-two runoff.

Runoff conditional outlook

If the expected Gallagher-McGuire pairing materializes, the August runoff still starts from a Republican-leaning district prior.

No public district polling average

This page is fundamentals-only unless public district polling appears before June 2.