Vacant U.S. House seat · No special election called
FL‑20: a vacant seat
Florida never called a special election and, weeks before the general election, is unlikely to: the seat should stay vacant until the November 3 winner is sworn in in January. The forecast covers which party will hold it.
Projected winner
99.8%Democratic nominee win probabilityProjected margin
44.0 pointsDemocratic nomineeElection date
TBDwrit pendingField
Names pendingparty-level forecastUpdated October 22, 2026 · 50,000 simulations
Party-control projection
Candidate ranking
Provisional forecast before the date and candidates are confirmed.
Democratic nominee
Democrat
- Projected vote
- 72.0%
- Win
- 99.8%
- Median
- 72.0%
Republican nominee
Republican
- Projected vote
- 28.0%
- Win
- 0.3%
- Median
- 28.0%
20th Congressional District
District context
The seat became vacant after Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned. No special election was called: the seat stays vacant until the winner of the regular general of November 3, 2026 is sworn in.
The party-level projection below is the last provisional one, frozen when the desk closed. The seat is decided on November 3 under the 2026 map, in the House projection.
provisional_party_control_v1
Model note
Closed desk. The figures are the last provisional party-control projection, made while a special election was still expected: it anchors to the 119th Congress district result and widens uncertainty for special-election turnout and candidate effects. No special election was called — see pending.no_writ_fallback for the contest that fills the seat.
JSONMODEL INPUTS
Main assumptions
The anchor uses the district that elected the departing member, not a later general-election redistricting plan.
Candidate-specific effects are not applied before official qualification.
The distribution is deliberately wider than a normal general-election projection because date, turnout and nominees remain unknown.
No writ was ever issued. Six months after the vacancy and days before the regular general, the seat is left vacant until November 3; this desk is closed and its projection kept unchanged as a record.
PUBLIC REFERENCE POINTS