U.K. Desk

Labour is winning the polls. Reform UK is winning 60 more seats.

Vote-Scope projects all 650 Westminster constituencies one by one, from polls corrected for house effects and calibrated on past elections. The gap between votes and seats is the whole story, and you can only see it seat by seat.

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3 SEP 2026 · CLACTON

Farage is filmed celebrating a secret foreign-funded polling scheme. Could Clacton vote again?

According to Channel 4 News and the investigative group Verbatim, senior Reform UK figures had three polls paid for by a US company and published as independent. Reform UK and Mr Farage deny the allegations in full; nothing has been charged. We are not waiting for that to resolve — the recall chain is modelled, and so is every field the race could take.

51.9% a second by-election by mid-2029

The recall chain and 24 race scenarios →

1 SEP 2026 · WESTMINSTER

Starmer has left the Commons — six weeks after leaving Downing Street.

Keir Starmer stood down as MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 1 September, saying it was time to step aside for international work. Andy Burnham had already replaced him as prime minister on 20 July, with Healey at the Treasury, Streeting at Defence and Rayner back at Housing. Two things follow: the Commons has a vacancy again, and the model now reads Labour through a leader it has only a few months of polling on.

The by-election, seat by seat →

Model topline · run 2026-09-16 · 606 polls

Labour 25.5% 166 seats
Reform UK 23.5% 225 seats
Conservative 20.3% 104 seats
Liberal Democrat 11.0% 71 seats
Green 10.5% 7 seats

Commons today — 634 of 650 GB seats tracked

Labour 409Conservative 122Liberal Democrat 72Reform UK 5Green 5SNP 8Plaid Cymru 4Other 8Vacant 1

By-elections

Open race · writ not moved, no date set

Labour has to defend Starmer’s seat without Starmer.

Fundamentals only — no constituency poll exists yet, so this is a range, not a number. Labour projects at 35.3% (26.8–43.5) and holds in 82.2% of simulations; the Greens sit at 24.0% with a 16.9% chance of the gain. The 2024 runner-up here was not a Conservative — it was an independent on 18.9%.

If Green leader Zack Polanski stands, Labour’s hold probability falls to 55.8%. That single unknown moves this race more than anything else on the board.

Open the race desk →

2026 by-elections — called and settled

Clacton Reform hold — Farage back with 63.3% against Count Binface, on a 44.4% turnout. 13 Aug 2026
Gorton and Denton Green gain from Labour — first Green by-election win. 26 Feb 2026
Makerfield Labour hold — Andy Burnham returns to Westminster. 18 Jun 2026
Aberdeen South Conservative gain from the SNP — first Scottish by-election gain since 1967. 18 Jun 2026
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP hold. 18 Jun 2026

Clacton settled on 13 August: Reform hold, and the Commons vacancy that had been showing here is gone.

General election projection

U.K. General Election

650-seat projection. Bayesian poll aggregation, 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, seat-level probabilities.

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Constituency profiles

650 Westminster constituencies

A page for every seat: projection, sitting MP, 2024 result, ONS demographics and neighbouring seats.

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Polling hub

Every poll, weighted

The full U.K. polling series that feeds the model — firm, dates, sample and weight, poll by poll.

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In this desk

Everything this desk publishes.

Methodology after the signal

Built for depth, down to the marginal seat.

The British electoral map rewards granularity: tactical voting, regional swings and third-party dynamics shift individual seats in ways national polls can't predict. Vote-Scope projects every seat, so you can see exactly where the contest lives.

  • Polling aggregation uses a Bayesian BSTS model with region-level adjustments.
  • 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations produce seat distributions and win probabilities.
  • Commons composition reflects resolved by-elections and current vacancies — not just the 2024 result.
  • By-elections get their own engine. Holborn and St Pancras runs on a dedicated Monte Carlo model with no constituency poll yet, so it publishes ranges and field scenarios rather than a point estimate.