U.K. Desk
Where is the British map genuinely settled, and where is it quietly fragile?
Constituency projections from bias-corrected Bayesian poll aggregation, calibrated on past elections — every seat, updated as new polls land.
Model topline · run 2026-07-17 · 545 polls
Commons today — 634 of 650 GB seats tracked
By-elections
Live race · polling day 13 August
Farage vs Binface.
Farage recontests his own seat against Count Binface while the major parties boycott. Dedicated Monte Carlo engine: Farage 82.1%, Binface 17.9% — with markets, odds and Binface's path to victory.
2026 by-elections — called and settled
General election projection
U.K. General Election
650-seat projection. Bayesian poll aggregation, 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, seat-level probabilities.
Constituency profiles
650 Westminster constituencies
A page for every seat: projection, sitting MP, 2024 result, ONS demographics and neighbouring seats.
Polling hub
Every poll, weighted
The full U.K. polling series that feeds the model — firm, dates, sample and weight, poll by poll.
Methodology after the signal
Built for depth, down to the marginal seat.
The British electoral map rewards granularity: tactical voting, regional swings and third-party dynamics shift individual seats in ways national polls can't predict. Vote-Scope projects every seat, so you can see exactly where the contest lives.
- Polling aggregation uses a Bayesian BSTS model with region-level adjustments.
- 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations produce seat distributions and win probabilities.
- Commons composition reflects resolved by-elections and current vacancies — not just the 2024 result.
- By-elections get dedicated race desks — Clacton runs on its own Monte Carlo engine, with markets shown as external comparison.