U.S. Senate
Chance of a Senate majority: Democratic 79%, Republican 11%.
The first polls close on Tuesday, November 3 at 7 p.m. Eastern. Results will appear here on their own, no need to reload the page.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 53 | 49–56 | 79% |
| Republican | 47 | 43–51 | 11% |
51 seats for a majority, out of 100 · 632 polls, 50,000 simulations
Democrats · Polymarket : 74%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current Senate Composition
Seats — 100 total
- Republican 53
- Democratic 47
Prediction markets · Kalshi
What Kalshi traders are paying
Live prices from the Kalshi elections exchange, shown beside our projection. These prices do not enter our projection.
Congress balance of power
US$77M open interest- Democrats sweep73%
- D House, R Senate24%
- Republicans sweep5.9%
- R House, D Senate0.7%
Kalshi prices as of November 2, 2026 · Probability implied by the last traded price, or the midpoint between bid and ask when a contract has not traded.
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
State map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All races
All 35 races, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Race | State | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | IA | Republican | 49.9% | 4.3 pts | 52% | Hold |
| South Carolina | SC | Republican | 50.0% | 4.5 pts | 53% | Hold |
| Texas | TX | Democratic | 50.9% | 4.6 pts | 67% | Republican → Democratic |
| Kansas | KS | Democratic | 50.8% | 4.7 pts | 64% | Republican → Democratic |
| Alaska | AK | Democratic | 50.7% | 4.7 pts | 63% | Republican → Democratic |
| Nebraska | NE | Republican | 51.1% | 4.9 pts | 69% | Hold |
| Maine | ME | Democratic | 51.3% | 4.9 pts | 72% | Republican → Democratic |
| Ohio | OH | Democratic | 51.1% | 5.5 pts | 70% | Republican → Democratic |
| Michigan | MI | Democratic | 52.5% | 6.3 pts | 84% | Hold |
| Mississippi | MS | Republican | 48.7% | 7.4 pts | 67% | Hold |
| Minnesota | MN | Democratic | 52.9% | 7.6 pts | 90% | Hold |
| Montana | MT | Republican | 44.5% | 8.2 pts | 78% | Hold |
| Florida | FL | Republican | 53.6% | 8.3 pts | 90% | Hold |
| Louisiana | LA | Republican | 53.8% | 8.8 pts | 90% | Hold |
| North Carolina | NC | Democratic | 54.3% | 9.3 pts | 95% | Republican → Democratic |
| South Dakota | SD | Republican | 53.9% | 9.6 pts | 84% | Hold |
| Georgia | GA | Democratic | 54.9% | 10.5 pts | 96% | Hold |
| New Hampshire | NH | Democratic | 55.9% | 12.3 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Virginia | VA | Democratic | 56.4% | 13.8 pts | 94% | Hold |
| Idaho | ID | Republican | 48.3% | 14.0 pts | 82% | Hold |
| Kentucky | KY | Republican | 56.5% | 14.0 pts | 94% | Hold |
| Alabama | AL | Republican | 56.9% | 14.2 pts | 98% | Hold |
| New Mexico | NM | Democratic | 57.1% | 14.8 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Illinois | IL | Democratic | 58.2% | 16.9 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Colorado | CO | Democratic | 57.5% | 17.6 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Tennessee | TN | Republican | 58.5% | 22.1 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Arkansas | AR | Republican | 61.0% | 22.4 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Oklahoma | OK | Republican | 57.7% | 23.4 pts | 99% | Hold |
| New Jersey | NJ | Democratic | 61.2% | 24.3 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Oregon | OR | Democratic | 60.9% | 25.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Massachusetts | MA | Democratic | 63.2% | 28.9 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Delaware | DE | Democratic | 63.5% | 29.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Rhode Island | RI | Democratic | 63.3% | 31.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| West Virginia | WV | Republican | 67.7% | 38.1 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Wyoming | WY | Republican | 68.9% | 40.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
Is the Senate map competitive enough to overcome its structural tilt?
Senate control is decided in a handful of states. A modest national shift barely moves the map; recruitment, incumbency and late money in the closest races move it far more.
How we got here
Only a third of the seats are up this year, so geography and incumbency come first.
Probabilities describe the range of plausible chamber outcomes; they do not erase distinct state coalitions.
What can still change the race
- Recruitment and primary outcomes in the closest states.
- Whether presidential approval moves consistently across several weeks.
- Spending decisions that reveal where both parties see real opportunity.