U.S. Senate
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-07-14
Democratic have the map. The market sees a much tighter chamber.
420 polls · 20,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Current Senate Composition
Seats — 100 total
- Republican 53
- Democratic 47
Seat projection
Democratic - Vote
- —
- P(majority)
- 58%
- P(largest)
- 58%
Republican - Vote
- —
- P(majority)
- 19%
- P(largest)
- 19%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
The race question
Is the Senate map competitive enough to overcome its structural tilt?
The model lands at 50.9 Democratic seats and 49.1 Republican. Polymarket gives Democrats 56.5%: this is not a wave forecast, it is a one-seat war.
How we got here
How we got here
Senate control is never a national popular-vote contest: only the seats scheduled in this class are exposed. That makes geography and incumbency the first layer of the story.
Probabilities describe the range of plausible chamber outcomes; they do not erase distinct state coalitions.
What just changed
What just changed
17 JUL 2026
South Carolina opens another front
Lindsey Graham’s death on 11 July triggered a November special election and put several Republican House members into the Senate pipeline. A safe-state succession fight can still reshape recruitment and spending elsewhere.
Our read: The desk is tracking the new special-election field; the 14 July run predates it.
What can still change the race
What can still change the race
- Recruitment and primary outcomes in the closest states.
- Whether presidential approval moves consistently across several weeks.
- Spending decisions that reveal where both parties see real opportunity.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 100 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | AR | Republican | 62.3% | 39.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Wyoming | WY | Republican | 67.1% | 36.9% | 100% | Hold |
| West Virginia | WV | Republican | 66.2% | 35.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Delaware | DE | Democratic | 64.9% | 32.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Rhode Island | RI | Democratic | 64.7% | 29.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Oregon | OR | Democratic | 62.3% | 28.4% | 100% | Hold |
| New Jersey | NJ | Democratic | 62.6% | 27.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Massachusetts | MA | Democratic | 63.1% | 27.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Illinois | IL | Democratic | 60.4% | 26.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Idaho | ID | Republican | 58.1% | 25.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Oklahoma | OK | Republican | 58.9% | 22.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Colorado | CO | Democratic | 58.9% | 20.2% | 100% | Hold |
| South Dakota | SD | Republican | 52.9% | 19.7% | 99% | Hold |
| Tennessee | TN | Republican | 58.2% | 19.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Louisiana | LA | Republican | 57.1% | 17.8% | 100% | Hold |
| New Mexico | NM | Democratic | 57.1% | 17.0% | 99% | Hold |
| Virginia | VA | Democratic | 57.1% | 14.7% | 99% | Hold |
| Alabama | AL | Republican | 56.0% | 12.5% | 97% | Hold |
| Nebraska | NE | Republican | 54.5% | 12.2% | 95% | Hold |
| New Hampshire | NH | Democratic | 55.2% | 11.2% | 96% | Hold |
| Kentucky | KY | Republican | 54.5% | 10.6% | 96% | Hold |
| Minnesota | MN | Democratic | 53.9% | 9.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Montana | MT | Republican | 50.8% | 9.4% | 85% | Hold |
| Georgia | GA | Democratic | 53.5% | 9.1% | 83% | Republican → Democratic |
| Mississippi | MS | Republican | 52.3% | 8.5% | 80% | Hold |
| Kansas | KS | Republican | 51.0% | 7.3% | 71% | Hold |
| North Carolina | NC | Democratic | 52.4% | 6.4% | 88% | Republican → Democratic |
| Florida | FL | Republican | 51.7% | 4.7% | 84% | Hold |
| Michigan | MI | Democratic | 51.2% | 4.2% | 76% | Hold |
| Maine | ME | Republican | 49.2% | 3.7% | 51% | Hold |
| Ohio | OH | Democratic | 50.4% | 3.7% | 61% | Republican → Democratic |
| South Carolina | SC | Republican | 51.0% | 3.1% | 86% | Hold |
| Alaska | AK | Republican | 50.7% | 3.0% | 83% | Hold |
| Texas | TX | Democratic | 49.8% | 3.0% | 54% | Republican → Democratic |
| Iowa | IA | Democratic | 49.6% | 2.0% | 56% | Republican → Democratic |