Model vs markets
2026 midterms: our forecast vs Kalshi and Polymarket
A statistical model and two exchanges where people put money down, side by side, race by race. A comparison, not a ranking.
Who will control Congress?
Probability of a Democratic win. The dotted line is 50%.
Senate control (Democratic)
- Vote-Scope (ours) 79%
- Kalshi 73.7%
- Polymarket 73.5%
House control (Democratic)
- Vote-Scope (ours) 97.8%
- Kalshi 97%
- Polymarket 94.5%
Most governorships (Democratic)
- Vote-Scope (ours) 71.9%
- Kalshi 82.9%
Where we disagree most with the markets
Each row: our probability of a Democratic win (black dot) and the market’s (hatched dot). The longer the line, the bigger the disagreement.
- TX-15House of Representatives 52.7% · Kalshi 89% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 36.3 pts
- CO-3House of Representatives 68.2% · Kalshi 37% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 31.2 pts
- FL-27House of Representatives 17.4% · Polymarket 43.5% We are more Republican than Polymarket by 26.1 pts
- TX-35House of Representatives 50.5% · Kalshi 74.7% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 24.2 pts
- FL-11House of Representatives 32.7% · Polymarket 10% We are more Democratic than Polymarket by 22.7 pts
- NC-13House of Representatives 21.9% · Polymarket 43.5% We are more Republican than Polymarket by 21.6 pts
- MontanaSenate 22.4% · Kalshi 0.8% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 21.6 pts
- FL-22House of Representatives 53.6% · Polymarket 74.5% We are more Republican than Polymarket by 20.9 pts
- NJ-7House of Representatives 75.4% · Kalshi 94.5% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 19.1 pts
- NC-11House of Representatives 67.3% · Kalshi 86% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 18.7 pts
- MississippiSenate 33.4% · Kalshi 14.9% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 18.5 pts
- VA-1House of Representatives 45.4% · Kalshi 63.4% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 18 pts
Every race with odds
Senate · 35
| Race | Vote-Scope | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | 22.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | +21.6 |
| Mississippi | 33.4% | 14.9% | 13.5% | +18.5 |
| South Carolina | 47.1% | 30.3% | 31.5% | +16.8 |
| Alaska | 62.5% | 71% | — | −8.5 |
| Texas | 67.1% | 75.2% | 75.5% | −8.1 |
| Michigan | 84.3% | 77.2% | 79.5% | +7.1 |
| Louisiana | 10.5% | 15.8% | 14% | −5.3 |
| Florida | 9.8% | 14.9% | 12.5% | −5.1 |
| Virginia | 93.9% | 98.3% | 99.2% | −4.4 |
| New Hampshire | 97.9% | 93.7% | 94.5% | +4.2 |
| Arkansas | 0.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | −3.1 |
| Minnesota | 89.8% | 92.6% | 94.5% | −2.8 |
| North Carolina | 95% | 97.3% | 97.9% | −2.3 |
| Delaware | 99.8% | 98.1% | 99.1% | +1.7 |
| Wyoming | 0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | −1.7 |
| Kansas | 64.1% | 62.4% | 61.5% | +1.7 |
| Kentucky | 6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | +1.5 |
| Tennessee | 1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | −1.4 |
| Georgia | 96% | 97.2% | 97.1% | −1.2 |
| Iowa | 48.3% | 49.5% | 47.5% | −1.2 |
| Massachusetts | 99.8% | 98.6% | 99.2% | +1.2 |
| New Jersey | 99.4% | 98.2% | 99.2% | +1.2 |
| Colorado | 97.4% | 98.5% | 99.1% | −1.1 |
| Oregon | 99.6% | 98.5% | 99% | +1.1 |
| Illinois | 99.1% | 98.1% | 99.3% | +1 |
| Rhode Island | 100% | 99% | 99.1% | +1 |
| West Virginia | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | −1 |
| Nebraska | 0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | −0.8 |
| New Mexico | 97.5% | 98.3% | 99.4% | −0.8 |
| Oklahoma | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | −0.7 |
| Ohio | 70.4% | 70% | 72.5% | +0.4 |
| Idaho | 0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | −0.3 |
| Alabama | 1.9% | 2% | 1.1% | −0.1 |
| South Dakota | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | −0.1 |
| Maine | 72.2% | 72.3% | 74.5% | −0.1 |
Governors · 36
| Race | Vote-Scope | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 22.5% | 39.2% | 38.5% | −16.7 |
| Ohio | 66.4% | 82% | 81.5% | −15.6 |
| Nevada | 61.9% | 73.5% | 76.5% | −11.6 |
| Georgia | 59% | 69.3% | 69.5% | −10.3 |
| Vermont | 20.1% | 29.7% | 30.6% | −9.6 |
| Rhode Island | 87.6% | 96.9% | 97.4% | −9.3 |
| Alaska | 79% | 85.3% | — | −6.3 |
| Wisconsin | 77.5% | 83.2% | 84.5% | −5.7 |
| Oklahoma | 4.3% | 10% | 8.5% | −5.7 |
| Iowa | 80.5% | 86.1% | 88% | −5.6 |
| New Mexico | 88.8% | 94% | 95.5% | −5.2 |
| Tennessee | 1.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | −4.3 |
| South Carolina | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | +4.2 |
| New Hampshire | 17.9% | — | 13.8% | +4.1 |
| Connecticut | 99.8% | 96.4% | 97.6% | +3.4 |
| Maine | 98.3% | 95.1% | 96.7% | +3.2 |
| Hawaii | 99.9% | 97.1% | 98.5% | +2.8 |
| Nebraska | 7.2% | 10% | 9% | −2.8 |
| California | 100% | 97.2% | — | +2.8 |
| Oregon | 78.2% | 81% | 83% | −2.8 |
| New York | 98.7% | 96.1% | 97% | +2.6 |
| Massachusetts | 100% | 97.4% | 98.2% | +2.6 |
| Alabama | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | −2.5 |
| Illinois | 99.5% | 97.5% | 98.8% | +2 |
| Pennsylvania | 99.9% | 98.3% | 98.7% | +1.6 |
| Idaho | 0.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | −1.6 |
| Michigan | 94.4% | 93% | 95.2% | +1.4 |
| Arkansas | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | −1.1 |
| Arizona | 92.8% | 91.7% | 93.5% | +1.1 |
| Kansas | 31.5% | — | 30.5% | +1 |
| South Dakota | 1% | 2% | 1.2% | −1 |
| Wyoming | 0% | 1% | 0.4% | −1 |
| Colorado | 96.5% | 97.4% | 97.5% | −0.9 |
| Maryland | 99.9% | 99.1% | 99.3% | +0.8 |
| Minnesota | 96.7% | 96.5% | 98.1% | +0.2 |
| Texas | 39.2% | 39% | 37.5% | +0.2 |
Show all 204 House districts
| Race | Vote-Scope | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-15 | 52.7% | 89% | 88.5% | −36.3 |
| CO-3 | 68.2% | 37% | — | +31.2 |
| FL-27 | 17.4% | — | 43.5% | −26.1 |
| TX-35 | 50.5% | 74.7% | 71.5% | −24.2 |
| FL-11 | 32.7% | — | 10% | +22.7 |
| NC-13 | 21.9% | — | 43.5% | −21.6 |
| FL-22 | 53.6% | — | 74.5% | −20.9 |
| NJ-7 | 75.4% | 94.5% | — | −19.1 |
| NC-11 | 67.3% | 86% | 85.5% | −18.7 |
| VA-1 | 45.4% | 63.4% | — | −18 |
| NC-1 | 68.8% | 86.1% | — | −17.3 |
| FL-25 | 64.9% | — | 81.5% | −16.6 |
| MI-4 | 44.2% | 60.4% | — | −16.2 |
| VA-2 | 75.2% | 90.6% | — | −15.4 |
| NY-17 | 73.2% | 58.4% | 59.5% | +14.8 |
| PA-1 | 39.9% | 54.5% | — | −14.6 |
| FL-13 | 47.4% | 33.7% | 35.5% | +13.7 |
| AZ-2 | 55.3% | 42% | — | +13.3 |
| TX-38 | 15.4% | — | 2.2% | +13.2 |
| NY-21 | 23.5% | — | 34.5% | −11 |
| ME-2 | 55% | 44.1% | — | +10.9 |
| FL-16 | 39.4% | — | 29% | +10.4 |
| FL-18 | 17.4% | — | 7.5% | +9.9 |
| TX-21 | 11.4% | — | 1.8% | +9.6 |
| OH-1 | 84.3% | 93.3% | — | −9 |
| GA-10 | 9.8% | — | 1.1% | +8.7 |
| FL-26 | 5.9% | — | 14% | −8.1 |
| TX-22 | 12.2% | — | 4.2% | +8 |
| OH-10 | 22.6% | — | 30.5% | −7.9 |
| TX-9 | 17.7% | 25% | — | −7.3 |
| NY-3 | 99.2% | 92% | — | +7.2 |
| GA-12 | 7.9% | — | 15% | −7.1 |
| TX-34 | 81.1% | 88.1% | 89.5% | −7 |
| OH-15 | 44.2% | — | 37.5% | +6.7 |
| CA-22 | 83.8% | 90.4% | — | −6.6 |
| TX-27 | 8.2% | — | 1.6% | +6.6 |
| NC-10 | 11.4% | — | 4.9% | +6.5 |
| TX-24 | 11.1% | — | 4.7% | +6.4 |
| TX-10 | 13.6% | — | 7.5% | +6.1 |
| NY-4 | 99% | 93% | — | +6 |
| FL-15 | 11% | — | 5.1% | +5.9 |
| TX-23 | 41.8% | — | 47.5% | −5.7 |
| NE-2 | 97.4% | 91.8% | — | +5.6 |
| CO-8 | 81.8% | 87.1% | — | −5.3 |
| GA-11 | 9.2% | — | 4% | +5.2 |
| AZ-6 | 82.9% | 88.1% | — | −5.2 |
| WI-3 | 82.1% | 87.1% | — | −5 |
| FL-28 | 1.7% | — | 6.5% | −4.8 |
| FL-21 | 6.5% | — | 11.2% | −4.7 |
| CA-45 | 96.7% | 92.1% | 94% | +4.6 |
| IL-16 | 7.5% | — | 2.9% | +4.6 |
| TX-28 | 95.4% | 90.9% | 92% | +4.5 |
| PA-8 | 81.6% | 86% | — | −4.4 |
| NM-2 | 96.3% | 91.9% | — | +4.4 |
| PA-10 | 78.4% | 82.8% | 83% | −4.4 |
| NV-1 | 99.5% | 95.2% | — | +4.3 |
| CA-23 | 7.7% | — | 3.5% | +4.2 |
| IA-3 | 79.1% | 83.2% | — | −4.1 |
| PA-16 | 1.5% | — | 5.5% | −4 |
| AK-AL | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | +4 |
| CA-48 | 91.6% | — | 95.5% | −3.9 |
| MI-3 | 99.7% | 95.9% | — | +3.8 |
| CA-11 | 100% | — | 96.3% | +3.7 |
| NV-3 | 98.2% | 94.5% | — | +3.7 |
| NY-24 | 5.6% | — | 1.9% | +3.7 |
| UT-1 | 100% | 96.4% | — | +3.6 |
| IL-10 | 100% | — | 96.6% | +3.4 |
| TX-31 | 2.8% | — | 6.2% | −3.4 |
| MN-2 | 97.6% | 94.2% | — | +3.4 |
| CA-37 | 100% | — | 96.8% | +3.2 |
| MO-5 | 100% | 96.8% | — | +3.2 |
| CA-47 | 99.2% | 96.1% | 97.5% | +3.1 |
| TX-25 | 6.6% | — | 3.5% | +3.1 |
| IN-1 | 99.6% | 96.5% | — | +3.1 |
| CA-26 | 99.7% | — | 96.7% | +3 |
| WY-AL | 0% | — | 3% | −3 |
| IN-7 | 100% | 97.1% | — | +2.9 |
| FL-12 | 10.1% | — | 13% | −2.9 |
| CA-13 | 97.6% | 94.7% | 95.5% | +2.9 |
| CA-25 | 99.8% | — | 96.9% | +2.9 |
| CA-50 | 99.9% | — | 97.1% | +2.8 |
| WA-3 | 91.9% | 89.1% | — | +2.8 |
| NY-23 | 4.1% | — | 1.3% | +2.8 |
| CA-21 | 98.8% | 96% | 95.5% | +2.8 |
| CA-29 | 100% | — | 97.2% | +2.8 |
| CA-42 | 99.8% | — | 97% | +2.8 |
| CA-49 | 99.3% | 96.5% | 98.5% | +2.8 |
| NJ-9 | 99% | 96.2% | — | +2.8 |
| MI-8 | 99.3% | 96.6% | — | +2.7 |
| TX-16 | 99.9% | — | 97.2% | +2.7 |
| IL-17 | 99.6% | 96.9% | 96.7% | +2.7 |
| TX-17 | 5.4% | — | 2.8% | +2.6 |
| NJ-12 | 100% | — | 97.4% | +2.6 |
| CA-46 | 100% | — | 97.5% | +2.5 |
| TX-20 | 100% | — | 97.5% | +2.5 |
| FL-14 | 79.9% | — | 77.5% | +2.4 |
| OH-14 | 1.8% | — | 4.2% | −2.4 |
| ND-AL | 0% | — | 2.4% | −2.4 |
| NC-14 | 23.9% | — | 21.5% | +2.4 |
| OR-5 | 98.3% | 95.9% | — | +2.4 |
| CA-3 | 99.3% | 97% | — | +2.3 |
| CA-16 | 100% | — | 97.7% | +2.3 |
| MT-1 | 55.7% | 58% | — | −2.3 |
| PA-17 | 99.5% | 97.2% | 97% | +2.3 |
| TX-33 | 100% | — | 97.7% | +2.3 |
| CA-28 | 100% | — | 97.8% | +2.2 |
| CA-36 | 100% | — | 97.8% | +2.2 |
| IL-13 | 99.9% | — | 97.7% | +2.2 |
| NY-25 | 99.9% | — | 97.7% | +2.2 |
| NY-15 | 100% | — | 97.9% | +2.1 |
| NY-26 | 100% | — | 97.9% | +2.1 |
| TX-29 | 100% | — | 97.9% | +2.1 |
| CA-51 | 99.8% | — | 97.8% | +2 |
| TX-37 | 100% | — | 98% | +2 |
| CA-52 | 100% | — | 98.1% | +1.9 |
| MI-11 | 99.9% | — | 98% | +1.9 |
| TX-14 | 5.9% | — | 4% | +1.9 |
| UT-2 | 3.1% | 5% | — | −1.9 |
| CA-39 | 99.6% | — | 97.7% | +1.9 |
| VA-7 | 98.1% | 96.2% | — | +1.9 |
| TX-26 | 3% | — | 1.2% | +1.8 |
| TX-11 | 0.5% | — | 2.3% | −1.8 |
| CA-30 | 100% | — | 98.2% | +1.8 |
| CA-43 | 100% | — | 98.2% | +1.8 |
| CA-44 | 100% | — | 98.2% | +1.8 |
| DE-AL | 100% | — | 98.2% | +1.8 |
| MI-7 | 78.3% | 76.5% | — | +1.8 |
| MI-13 | 100% | — | 98.2% | +1.8 |
| NY-13 | 100% | — | 98.2% | +1.8 |
| NY-22 | 99.7% | 97.9% | 97.2% | +1.8 |
| FL-20 | 100% | — | 98.3% | +1.7 |
| UT-3 | 0.1% | 1.8% | — | −1.7 |
| CA-31 | 99.6% | — | 97.9% | +1.7 |
| AZ-1 | 82.4% | 80.8% | — | +1.6 |
| PA-13 | 0% | — | 1.6% | −1.6 |
| TX-13 | 0.1% | — | 1.7% | −1.6 |
| TX-32 | 15.7% | 14.1% | 13% | +1.6 |
| CA-10 | 100% | — | 98.4% | +1.6 |
| CA-34 | 100% | — | 98.4% | +1.6 |
| MI-10 | 72.7% | 74.3% | 74% | −1.6 |
| NV-4 | 99.6% | 98% | — | +1.6 |
| NY-18 | 99.5% | 97.9% | 96.4% | +1.6 |
| PA-7 | 85.4% | 87% | — | −1.6 |
| GA-13 | 100% | — | 98.5% | +1.5 |
| NJ-5 | 99.8% | 98.3% | — | +1.5 |
| NY-10 | 100% | — | 98.5% | +1.5 |
| NY-20 | 100% | — | 98.5% | +1.5 |
| OH-11 | 100% | — | 98.5% | +1.5 |
| OH-13 | 98% | 96.5% | 97.2% | +1.5 |
| VT-AL | 100% | — | 98.5% | +1.5 |
| VA-10 | 98.9% | 97.4% | 97.3% | +1.5 |
| CA-15 | 100% | — | 98.6% | +1.4 |
| CA-18 | 100% | — | 98.6% | +1.4 |
| CA-33 | 99.9% | — | 98.5% | +1.4 |
| NY-16 | 100% | — | 98.6% | +1.4 |
| TX-30 | 100% | — | 98.6% | +1.4 |
| PA-15 | 0% | — | 1.4% | −1.4 |
| PA-14 | 0.3% | — | 1.6% | −1.3 |
| SD-AL | 0.5% | — | 1.8% | −1.3 |
| IL-15 | 0.1% | — | 1.4% | −1.3 |
| OH-12 | 0.6% | — | 1.9% | −1.3 |
| PA-11 | 2.1% | — | 3.4% | −1.3 |
| IL-14 | 99.8% | — | 98.5% | +1.3 |
| MI-12 | 100% | — | 98.7% | +1.3 |
| NJ-10 | 100% | — | 98.7% | +1.3 |
| NC-12 | 100% | — | 98.7% | +1.3 |
| PA-12 | 99.8% | — | 98.5% | +1.3 |
| NY-12 | 100% | — | 98.8% | +1.2 |
| TX-19 | 0% | — | 1.1% | −1.1 |
| CA-41 | 99.8% | 98.7% | 97.7% | +1.1 |
| FL-10 | 100% | — | 98.9% | +1.1 |
| VA-11 | 100% | — | 98.9% | +1.1 |
| WA-8 | 99.6% | 98.5% | — | +1.1 |
| CA-17 | 100% | — | 99% | +1 |
| CA-19 | 100% | — | 99% | +1 |
| CA-35 | 99.6% | — | 98.6% | +1 |
| FL-24 | 100% | — | 99% | +1 |
| NY-19 | 97.4% | 96.4% | 96.4% | +1 |
| TX-36 | 3% | — | 2% | +1 |
| CA-24 | 100% | — | 99.1% | +0.9 |
| TX-18 | 100% | — | 99.1% | +0.9 |
| CA-20 | 0.9% | — | 1.8% | −0.9 |
| FL-17 | 3.9% | — | 3% | +0.9 |
| IL-12 | 0% | — | 0.8% | −0.8 |
| TX-12 | 2.1% | — | 2.9% | −0.8 |
| CA-9 | 99.8% | 99% | — | +0.8 |
| CA-38 | 99.5% | — | 98.7% | +0.8 |
| IL-11 | 99.8% | — | 99% | +0.8 |
| CA-14 | 100% | — | 99.3% | +0.7 |
| IA-1 | 89.5% | 88.8% | — | +0.7 |
| NH-1 | 94% | 93.3% | — | +0.7 |
| GA-14 | 1.7% | — | 2.4% | −0.7 |
| FL-23 | 99.6% | 98.9% | 97.8% | +0.7 |
| OH-9 | 79.6% | 80.2% | — | −0.6 |
| CA-32 | 100% | — | 99.4% | +0.6 |
| WA-10 | 100% | — | 99.4% | +0.6 |
| CA-12 | 100% | — | 99.5% | +0.5 |
| FL-19 | 2.1% | — | 2.6% | −0.5 |
| NJ-11 | 99.9% | — | 99.4% | +0.5 |
| NY-11 | 6.5% | — | 7% | −0.5 |
| NY-14 | 100% | — | 99.5% | +0.5 |
| WI-1 | 50.6% | 51% | — | −0.4 |
| CT-5 | 97.6% | 97.9% | — | −0.3 |
| CA-27 | 99.1% | 98.9% | — | +0.2 |
Probability of a Democratic win. Kalshi: prices renormalized across outcomes; Polymarket: last traded price. Races with no money at stake are left out.
Also compare with The Economist, DDHQ, Cook…
Data as of November 2, 2026. Vote-Scope is not affiliated with or endorsed by the exchanges shown; every price links to its source.
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