Forecast comparison
Who else forecasts the 2026 Senate, and where do they stand?
Every forecaster still publishing on the 2026 midterms, in one place, with our own number beside the ones we are allowed to carry. This is a comparison, not a ranking.
Our forecast
- Democratic control
- 79.0%
- Projected seats
- 52.7 D · 46.7 R
as of November 2, 2026 · was 78.9% on November 1, 2026
Chance that Democrats control it, side by side
Each bar is one forecaster’s published probability. The dotted line is 50%.
- Vote-Scope (ours) 79.0%
- Silver Bulletin (FLIPR) 75.0%
- Kalshi 73.7%
- Polymarket 73.5%
- ElectIndex 71.0%
- The Economist 57.6%
- Decision Desk HQ 57.0%
How solid the races are
Races sorted from solid Democratic to solid Republican. Ours in seven levels; expert ratings as published.
The “common scale” row sorts our own race-by-race probabilities with a single set of thresholds: safe at 95% or more, likely from 80%, lean from 60%, toss-up below 60%. Split Ticket uses the same cut-offs; FiftyPlusOne moves from lean to likely at 75%. Expert ratings are shown as their authors publish them.
What the other forecasters currently say
Each one’s own published headline figure, attributed and linked. We report what they publish; none of it enters our model, and we reproduce none of their underlying data.
Probabilistic models
- Decision Desk HQ 57.0%
- ElectIndex 71.0%
- Silver Bulletin (FLIPR) 75.0%
- The Economist 57.6%
Expert ratings — categories, not probabilities
- Cook Political Report 13 lean D · 7 toss-up · 15 lean R
- FiftyPlusOne 17 lean D · 3 toss-up · 15 lean R
- Fox News Power Rankings 13 lean D · 6 toss-up · 16 lean R
- Race to the WH 17 lean D · 3 toss-up · 15 lean R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball 15 lean D · 5 toss-up · 15 lean R
- Split Ticket (The Argument) 18 lean D · 2 toss-up · 15 lean R
Expert ratings — projected seat change
- Inside Elections Democrats +3 to +5 seats
Prediction markets
- Kalshi 73.7%
- Polymarket 73.5%
Other forecasts worth checking
They publish a forecast too. Their numbers are not carried here; follow the link.
Independent comparison. Vote-Scope is not affiliated with, or endorsed by, any forecaster listed here. Every third-party forecast remains the property of its publisher and is linked to its original page. Methodologies differ: a model states a probability, an expert rating states a category, and an exchange states a price.
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