Election & sports intelligence
A bureau of electoral and sports intelligence.
Not just who’s ahead. What’s moving, what’s fragile, and what the market is missing.
Fast path
Find a riding, district, candidate or race.
Search every Vote-Scope projection, poll page, instrument and methodology note from one place.
Live desk · Canada–U.S. trade war
Canada strikes back. C$27.6B in counter-tariffs now hit U.S. goods.
Talks collapsed on August 21. The 50% tariffs are in force, Ottawa answers dollar for dollar on September 8, and three Canadians in four say the walkout was right. One page keeps the leverage gap, the prediction markets and both countries’ polling on the same screen.
76% of Canadians say Canada was right to end the talks Angus Reid Institute · fielded Aug 22–23 · n = 1,468
Open the trade-war desk →Updated 2026-09-16
Today's headline number
Fully Lame
Lame-Duck Index · 7d: +5.8 · as of 2026-09-16
The flagship Vote-Scope instrument measures presidential drag ahead of the 2026 midterms. Higher = more lame duck. Currently in the Fully Lame zone.
The election game · Quebec
What if your vibe already knew your match?
A few cards to swipe, gut answers — then the Quebec party that fits best and today's projection in your riding. No signup, and your postal code never leaves your browser.
Find my match →Desks
Midterms 2026
United States Desk
Who controls Washington when the map stops being theoretical?House, Senate, special elections, presidential drag, and the market gaps that make U.S. politics readable day to day.
Federal + provincial
Canada Desk
Where is the Canadian map stable, and where is it only pretending?Federal, Quebec, Ontario, by-elections, riding risk, and the path from public polls to seat pressure.
Westminster + by-elections
United Kingdom Desk
How real is the Reform wave, seat by seat?650 constituencies calibrated against published MRPs, real by-election anchoring, and a special desk for Clacton — Farage under investigation, market checks included.
2027 Presidential
France Desk
Who reaches the runoff, and who wins it, in a field still taking shape?The 2027 presidential first: first-round scenarios, runoff matchups, declared field. Plus a full legislative model — 577 constituencies, calibrated withdrawal scenarios, and a bridge that carries presidential polling movement when direct legislative polls go quiet.
Sports model archive
Sports Scope
What did the models see before the trophies were awarded?A sportier desk for playoff paths, goalie volatility, live scores, market checks, and tournament chaos.
Every forecast
Every forecast, in one place.
United States
Open the desk →- President
Electoral college, 270 to win, and the invisible primary in both parties.
- House
All 435 districts, redistricting included, through the 2026 midterms.
- Senate
The seats up in 2026 and the arithmetic of control.
- Primaries
Live calls and county results across the 2026 primary calendar.
- Latino Radar
Where the Latino vote is moving, district by district.
- Lame-Duck Index
How much presidential weight is left before the midterms.
Canada
Open the desk →- Federal
343 ridings, seat pressure, and the 45th Parliament as it stands.
- Quebec
The October 2026 general election on the new 127-seat map.
- Ontario
Queen’s Park after 2025, riding by riding.
- Federal by-elections
Every pending seat: personal vote stripped, turnout residual applied.
- Ontario by-elections
Provincial by-elections, modelled on their own local terrain.
- Quebec candidate barometer
Who is running where, and what the declared field says about access.
- Canada Goose Index
The prime minister’s standing, on one scale you can follow over time.
United Kingdom
Open the desk →- General election
650 constituencies calibrated against the published MRPs.
- Clacton by-election
Farage against a record 34-candidate field — 13 August.
France
Open the desk →- Presidential
Who reaches the runoff in 2027, and who wins it.
- Legislative
577 constituencies, calibrated withdrawals, and the presidential bridge.
- Declared field
Every declared, probable and withdrawn candidate for 2027.
- Barrage Index
How solid the firewall against the far right still is.
Indices
Open the desk →- All instruments
Every proprietary index in one filterable shelf.
- CUSMA Showdown
Canada Goose against Lame-Duck: who blinks first on trade.
- Fraser Interim Index
How an interim leader is holding the Ontario Liberals together.
- Budget desk
Fiscal analysis, one page per budget edition.
Sports
Open the desk →- MLB 2026
The World Series race, rerun nightly.
- NHL
Playoff paths and goalie volatility, season by season.
- World Cup 2026
Archive: what the model saw before Spain lifted the trophy.
- Sports track record
Every sports call the model made, scored after the fact.
Vote-Scope instruments
The numbers are public. The signal is ours.
Each index answers one question with one number you can follow over time — presidential drag, majority fragility, and where the model and the market disagree.
Power
Lame-Duck Index
How politically constrained is the presidency right now?A named daily instrument for presidential drag, congressional risk, approval, and economic sentiment.
PowerCanada Goose Index
How much standing does Carney bring to the CUSMA table?A composite of Liberal electoral lead, seat projection, government approval, Nanos confidence, national mood, and mandate runway. Higher = stronger negotiating posture.
PowerCUSMA Showdown
Who leads the CUSMA negotiating table — Carney or Trump?Pits the Canada Goose Index against the Trump Lame-Duck Index in one leverage-gap number. Positive = Canada ahead.
PowerFraser Interim Index
Do Ontario Liberals poll better under Fraser as interim leader?Editorial indicator comparing Ontario Liberal polling under interim leader John Fraser vs permanent leaders. Score 0-100, 50 = neutral.
PowerBarrage Index
How solid is France’s republican front against the RN ahead of 2027?A composite of second-round polling margins, the VoteScope model verdict, transfer discipline, and far-right first-round pressure. Higher = the barrage holds; lower = rising risk of a far-right win.
MovementCandidate Barometer
Do Quebec parties give women their winnable ridings, or just their lost ones?Tracks the race to 127 candidacies and, party by party, whether women candidates get the ridings where the party is actually competitive. Calibrated on 2018 (a real glass cliff) and 2022 (none).
Model vs market
Where we line up with the market — and where we don’t.
Polymarket and betting odds sit right beside the model, so you can see at a glance where the traders and the math agree, where the market is panicking, and where Vote-Scope sees an edge.
Model output Vote-Scope
Benchmark Market
Refreshed daily, beside every projection.
Methodology after the signal
How the projections are built.
Every projection is built from public polls, an open Bayesian method, and the source data behind it — all on the page.
- All projections aggregate public polls in a Bayesian BSTS model — house effects measured and corrected, correlations estimated from the data, accuracy calibrated on past elections. Simulation only translates it all into seats.
- Prediction-market data (Polymarket) sits beside the model as a disagreement detector, not a substitute.
- Riding and constituency probabilities are conditioned on national and regional swings, then re-aggregated to seat distributions.
- Source data, methodology notes, and model outputs are public at each desk. Updated on a rolling basis as new polls arrive.