Vote-Scope · CUSMA · Live duel
Goose vs Lame Duck.
Who brings more standing to the CUSMA table? The showdown subtracts Trump's residual strength from Carney's, in one leverage-gap number. Positive means Canada leads, negative means the U.S. leads.
The two birds
Each side, its own instrument.
Mark Carney · Canada Goose Index
74.8/100 On the Wing Open index ↗Donald Trump · Lame-Duck Index
30.3/100 residual strength · LDI 69.7 Open index ↗How the gap works
One number from two instruments.
The gap is Canada Goose Index minus Trump strength (100 − Lame-Duck Index). It is derived purely from our two proprietary instruments — transparent and defensible. The signals below are bilateral context, deliberately NOT folded into the number.
Bilateral context
Signals around the table.
Real relational data — shown as context, not part of the gap calculation.
Loonie (USD→CAD)
1.4201 Bank of Canada (Valet) · 2026-07-03U.S. favourability of Canada
80% Gallup · 2026-02-16Tariff market
U.S. raises tariffs on Canada by June 30 View market ↗80% of Americans view Canada favourably (Gallup, Feb 2026) — a record low, down from a ~91% historical average, yet still 3rd among all nations. Soft-power leverage at the table.