Indexes

The instruments are the product.

Each Vote-Scope index exists to answer one live question with a named signal, a transparent method, and a distribution format.

Featured instrument

Lame-Duck Index — live now

Lame-Duck Index · Donald Trump

69.7 /100

Quacking

7-day delta: -5 · 4 components · as of 2026-07-14

Open full index →

Now live

Canada Goose Index & CUSMA Showdown.

Canada Goose Index · Mark Carney

74.8/100

On the Wing

Open Canada Goose Index →

CUSMA Showdown · Goose vs Lame Duck

+44.5

Canada commands the table

Open CUSMA Showdown →

Barrage Index · France 2027

29.9/100

Strained

Open the Barrage Index →

Interactive catalog

The catalogue — everything is live.

Every instrument in the catalogue is live and updates continuously. No announcements, no placeholders — an instrument shows up here when its numbers are public and tracked.

Power

Lame-Duck Index

How politically constrained is the presidency right now?

A named daily instrument for presidential drag, congressional risk, approval, and economic sentiment.

Daily / weekly inputslive
Power

Canada Goose Index

How much standing does Carney bring to the CUSMA table?

A composite of Liberal electoral lead, seat projection, government approval, Nanos confidence, national mood, and mandate runway. Higher = stronger negotiating posture.

As data landslive
Power

CUSMA Showdown

Who leads the CUSMA negotiating table — Carney or Trump?

Pits the Canada Goose Index against the Trump Lame-Duck Index in one leverage-gap number. Positive = Canada ahead.

Dailylive
Power

Fraser Interim Index

Do Ontario Liberals poll better under Fraser as interim leader?

Editorial indicator comparing Ontario Liberal polling under interim leader John Fraser vs permanent leaders. Score 0-100, 50 = neutral.

Quarterlylive
Power

Barrage Index

How solid is France’s republican front against the RN ahead of 2027?

A composite of second-round polling margins, the VoteScope model verdict, transfer discipline, and far-right first-round pressure. Higher = the barrage holds; lower = rising risk of a far-right win.

As data landslive

U.S. Midterms 2026 — balance of power

Live odds via Polymarket

Methodology after the signal

Each index answers one question with one number.

Vote-Scope indexes are named instruments, not dashboards. Each carries a single question, a transparent methodology, a live score updated on a documented cadence, and a historical record.

  • The Lame-Duck Index (LDI) is a 0–100 composite of presidential approval, economic drag, congressional margin distribution, and prediction-market odds — 4 components, updated daily.
  • All index scores are produced from public source data: BLS, Federal Reserve, polling aggregators, and Polymarket. Sources are documented at each instrument page.
  • Index methodology pages are public and versioned. When the model changes, the changelog is published alongside the updated score.
  • Historical scores are archived in the public JSON at each desk. No scores are revised retroactively without a documented correction notice.