NHL Desk
Who has the cleanest path to the Cup?
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Goalie volatility layer. Market gap detector. Team trend analysis.
Current favorites — as of 2026-06-16
Cup favorite · EAST
🌀 Carolina Hurricanes
Final: 100% · Conf: 100%
Model: 100% · Market: 36.36% · ↑ +6.37 pts (7d)
G: Brandon Bussi · SV% 89.5 · HD SV% 81.6
Full Cup board — top 1 teams
Playoff field ranked by championship probability
Model: BSTS + Monte Carlo + GoalieLayer · 10,000 simulations
| Team | Cup% | Final% | Conf% | Market% | 7d | Goalie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌀 Carolina Hurricanes | 100% | 100% | 100% | 36.36% | +6.37 | Brandon Bussi · SV% 89.5 |
Model vs market — disagreement detector
Where the model and the market diverge most.
Model over market
🌀 Carolina Hurricanes
Model: 100% vs Market: 36.36%
Gap: +63.6 pts — BSTS sees more upside than the books
7-day risers
Teams gaining ground in the last week.
Riser · EAST
🌀 Carolina Hurricanes
Cup: 100% · 7d move: +6.37 pts
G: Brandon Bussi · HD SV% 81.6
Methodology after the signal
The model is EWMA game-log + GoalieLayer HDSV%.
The NHL desk runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations nightly. Team strength uses an exponentially weighted moving average on game-log data from Natural Stat Trick. The goalie layer adjusts each series result using high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) from the probable starter.
- EWMA game-log gives more weight to recent regular-season and playoff performance.
- GoalieLayer CORR ~0.55 with playoff series results — meaningful but not decisive.
- Market blend at α=0.65 pulls toward BSTS when market confidence is high.
- All gaps between model and market are surfaced as disagreement signals, not calls.