U.S. Governors
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-09-16
18 governors are leaving. Their states decide the fifty.
294 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
Current Split of the 50 Governorships
Seats — 50 total
- Republican 26
- Democratic 24
Seat projection
Democratic - Vote
- —
- P(majority)
- 58%
- P(largest)
- 58%
Republican - Vote
- —
- P(majority)
- 19%
- P(largest)
- 19%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 50 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | OH | Democratic | 48.6% | 3.2% | 56% | Republican → Democratic |
| Florida | FL | Republican | 50.0% | 3.2% | 55% | Hold |
| Nevada | NV | Democratic | 49.7% | 3.5% | 61% | Republican → Democratic |
| Iowa | IA | Democratic | 51.2% | 3.9% | 76% | Republican → Democratic |
| Georgia | GA | Democratic | 50.6% | 4.1% | 63% | Republican → Democratic |
| Wisconsin | WI | Democratic | 52.0% | 5.0% | 87% | Hold |
| Texas | TX | Republican | 52.0% | 5.2% | 97% | Hold |
| Alaska | AK | Republican | 51.1% | 5.3% | 67% | Hold |
| Oregon | OR | Democratic | 50.0% | 5.8% | 75% | Hold |
| Michigan | MI | Democratic | 52.8% | 6.3% | 92% | Hold |
| Kansas | KS | Republican | 53.3% | 7.3% | 92% | Democratic → Republican |
| Arizona | AZ | Democratic | 53.1% | 7.6% | 96% | Hold |
| Minnesota | MN | Democratic | 53.2% | 8.3% | 91% | Hold |
| South Carolina | SC | Republican | 54.6% | 9.6% | 99% | Hold |
| New York | NY | Democratic | 54.8% | 10.1% | 96% | Hold |
| New Mexico | NM | Democratic | 54.7% | 10.4% | 91% | Hold |
| New Hampshire | NH | Republican | 54.8% | 11.3% | 97% | Hold |
| Maine | ME | Democratic | 54.7% | 11.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Nebraska | NE | Republican | 53.0% | 13.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Arkansas | AR | Republican | 53.5% | 14.1% | 99% | Hold |
| Alabama | AL | Republican | 57.5% | 15.3% | 99% | Hold |
| Colorado | CO | Democratic | 57.4% | 15.3% | 99% | Hold |
| Connecticut | CT | Democratic | 58.4% | 17.2% | 100% | Hold |
| South Dakota | SD | Republican | 58.4% | 19.8% | 99% | Hold |
| Illinois | IL | Democratic | 59.7% | 19.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Tennessee | TN | Republican | 57.0% | 21.1% | 100% | Hold |
| California | CA | Democratic | 61.1% | 22.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Pennsylvania | PA | Democratic | 61.4% | 23.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Rhode Island | RI | Democratic | 51.6% | 23.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Oklahoma | OK | Republican | 61.4% | 25.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Massachusetts | MA | Democratic | 64.4% | 29.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Idaho | ID | Republican | 60.1% | 30.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Maryland | MD | Democratic | 65.8% | 31.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Hawaii | HI | Democratic | 66.6% | 33.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Vermont | VT | Republican | 67.1% | 37.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Wyoming | WY | Republican | 64.1% | 38.3% | 100% | Hold |
The race question
Half of these seats have no incumbent. Does the state’s partisan lean take over?
Eighteen of the thirty-six governors on the ballot are term-limited or retiring, and that changes what predicts the race. Where a governor is running, their last result explains almost everything and the state’s presidential lean adds nothing. Where the seat is open, the reverse is true — and abruptly.
How we got here
How we got here
Governors outrun their state’s partisan lean routinely: Phil Scott took 73% of a state that votes Democratic by 17 points, Mark Gordon 74% of Wyoming. Those margins belong to the person, not the party, and they do not transfer to a successor.
Vote-Scope measured that split on the 2022 cycle rather than assuming it. Races with an incumbent on the ballot are anchored on the previous result; open seats are anchored on the Cook PVI. Cross-validated, each anchor beats the other by roughly two to one in its own regime.
What just changed
What just changed
LATEST REVIEW
Open seats are where the map moves
Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Ohio, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin all lose their sitting governor this year. Those are the races where a state’s usual habits reassert themselves — and where a nominee’s own strength has the least history behind it. The live tables above show the current run.
Our read: Watch item — not automatically treated as a model input.
What can still change the race
What can still change the race
- Whether nominees in open seats consolidate their party’s usual coalition or underperform it.
- A sustained move in the national generic ballot, which governor races absorb at roughly 72%.
- Independent candidacies that stay on the ballot through November rather than fading after the primaries.