U.S. Governors
Democratic leads in 22 of 36 governor races; 19 have no incumbent running.
The first polls close on Tuesday, November 3 at 7 p.m. Eastern. Results will appear here on their own, no need to reload the page.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 27 | 23–31 | 72% |
| Republican | 23 | 19–27 | 17% |
26 seats for a majority, out of 50 · 585 polls, 50,000 simulations
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current Split of the 50 Governorships
Seats — 50 total
- Republican 26
- Democratic 24
Prediction markets · Kalshi
What Kalshi traders are paying
Live prices from the Kalshi elections exchange, shown beside our projection. These prices do not enter our projection.
Most governorships after the midterms
US$111K open interest- Democrats85%
- Republicans13%
- Tie, 25-254.5%
Kalshi prices as of November 2, 2026 · Probability implied by the last traded price, or the midpoint between bid and ask when a contract has not traded.
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
State map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All races
All 36 races, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Race | State | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | TX | Republican | 50.2% | 4.4 pts | 61% | Hold |
| Georgia | GA | Democratic | 50.4% | 4.6 pts | 59% | Republican → Democratic |
| Ohio | OH | Democratic | 50.0% | 4.7 pts | 66% | Republican → Democratic |
| Kansas | KS | Republican | 51.1% | 5.0 pts | 68% | Democratic → Republican |
| Nevada | NV | Democratic | 50.4% | 5.0 pts | 62% | Republican → Democratic |
| Florida | FL | Republican | 51.3% | 5.4 pts | 77% | Hold |
| Iowa | IA | Democratic | 52.1% | 5.8 pts | 80% | Republican → Democratic |
| Alaska | AK | Democratic | 52.0% | 6.0 pts | 79% | Republican → Democratic |
| Wisconsin | WI | Democratic | 52.0% | 6.0 pts | 78% | Hold |
| Oregon | OR | Democratic | 50.3% | 6.4 pts | 78% | Hold |
| New Hampshire | NH | Republican | 51.9% | 6.5 pts | 82% | Hold |
| South Carolina | SC | Republican | 52.6% | 8.4 pts | 90% | Hold |
| Vermont | VT | Republican | 51.4% | 8.5 pts | 80% | Hold |
| Nebraska | NE | Republican | 51.6% | 8.6 pts | 93% | Hold |
| Arizona | AZ | Democratic | 53.4% | 8.8 pts | 93% | Hold |
| Michigan | MI | Democratic | 54.0% | 8.9 pts | 94% | Hold |
| New Mexico | NM | Democratic | 54.0% | 9.3 pts | 89% | Hold |
| Minnesota | MN | Democratic | 54.6% | 11.0 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Maine | ME | Democratic | 52.9% | 12.2 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Alabama | AL | Republican | 56.1% | 12.7 pts | 97% | Hold |
| New York | NY | Democratic | 56.3% | 13.2 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Rhode Island | RI | Democratic | 47.0% | 15.0 pts | 88% | Hold |
| Oklahoma | OK | Republican | 57.3% | 15.4 pts | 96% | Hold |
| South Dakota | SD | Republican | 57.7% | 15.8 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Colorado | CO | Democratic | 57.8% | 16.3 pts | 96% | Hold |
| Tennessee | TN | Republican | 51.9% | 16.7 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Illinois | IL | Democratic | 59.1% | 19.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Arkansas | AR | Republican | 54.2% | 19.5 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Connecticut | CT | Democratic | 59.7% | 19.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Pennsylvania | PA | Democratic | 61.4% | 23.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| California | CA | Democratic | 61.8% | 24.1 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Massachusetts | MA | Democratic | 61.3% | 26.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Idaho | ID | Republican | 56.9% | 27.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Hawaii | HI | Democratic | 67.0% | 34.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Maryland | MD | Democratic | 64.5% | 34.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Wyoming | WY | Republican | 63.6% | 37.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
Half of these seats have no incumbent. Does the state’s partisan lean take over?
About half of the 36 governor races have no incumbent running. Where a governor is running, their last result predicts the race well; where the seat is open, the state’s presidential lean matters much more.
How we got here
Governors outrun their state’s partisan lean routinely: Phil Scott took 73% of a state that votes Democratic by 17 points, Mark Gordon 74% of Wyoming. Those margins belong to the person, not the party, and they do not transfer to a successor.
Vote-Scope measured that split on the 2022 cycle rather than assuming it. Races with an incumbent on the ballot are anchored on the previous result; open seats are anchored on the Cook PVI. Cross-validated, each anchor beats the other by roughly two to one in its own regime.
What can still change the race
- Whether nominees in open seats consolidate their party’s usual coalition or underperform it.
- A sustained move in the national generic ballot, which governor races absorb at roughly 72%.
- Independent candidacies that stay on the ballot through November rather than fading after the primaries.