Idaho

Governor’s race · Idaho

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 56.9%

Brad Little, incumbent
Democrat 29.2%

Terri Pickens
Other 14.0%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	> 99%
Orbit	Republican	98%
50/50 blend	Republican	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Idaho	56.9%	29.2%	14.0%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+10.5	50.0%−20.8	3.6%+10.4

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Votenexus Knock Every Door PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	700	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 30 Independent and others 14	See the poll
Change Research	28–Jul 30, 2026	1,213	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 27 Independent and others 11	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Brad Little · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Brad Little
source
Democrat Challenger

Terri Pickens
source
Other Challenger

John Stegner
source
Other Challenger

Paul Sand
source
Other Challenger

Pro-Life
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 40.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 27.8 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026