Race profile

Idaho

Governor race — ID

The question

Idaho: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.1%

    Brad Little incumbent

  • Democrat 29.9%

    Terri Pickens

  • Other 10.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereIdaho 60.1%29.9%10.0%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +12.0 49.1% −19.3 2.7% +7.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Change Research 28–Jul 30 1,213 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 26
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Idaho elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 40 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Brad Little

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Brad Little

  • Democrat Challenger

    Terri Pickens

  • Other Challenger

    John Stegner

  • Other Challenger

    Paul Sand

  • Other Challenger

    Pro-Life

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
40.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.9 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026