Race profile

Nevada

Governor race — NV

The question

Nevada: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
61%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
75%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 49.7%

    Aaron Ford

  • Republican 48.5%

    Joe Lombardo incumbent

  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. IowaDemocrat76 %3.9 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNevada 49.7%48.5%1.8%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +0.6 48.2% +0.4 2.7% −0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

11 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Emerson College KLAS-TV Las Vegas 5–Sep 8 680 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link
Public Opinion Strategies Republican Governors Association 27–Jul 29 600 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 42
link
Tarrance Group Better Nevada PAC | Republican Governors Association 25–Jul 29 550 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 43
link
Public Policy Polling Democratic Governors Association 15–Jul 16 558 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 44
link
Grassroots Targeting Better Nevada PAC | Republican Governors Association 8–Jul 16 2,500 LV
Republican 52 Democrat 40
link
Wedgewood Polls 9–Jul 12 700 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 47
link
Global Strategy Group 5–May 11 700 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 42
link
Noble Predictive Insights 10–Mar 13 845 RV
Republican 39 Democrat 38
link
Hart Research Associates The Majority Institute 11–Feb 17 800 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 43
link
Emerson College 16–Nov 18 800 RV
Democrat 41 Republican 41
link
Noble Predictive Insights 7–Oct 13 766 RV
Republican 40 Democrat 37
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Nevada elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 2 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting governor

Joe Lombardo

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Joe Lombardo

  • Democrat Challenger

    Aaron Ford

  • Other Challenger

    Allen Rheinhart

  • Other Challenger

    Christopher Battenberg

  • Other Challenger

    Danielle Ford

  • Other Challenger

    Emilio Rodriguez

  • Other Challenger

    Gracie Vanburn

  • Other Challenger

    John Scott

  • Other Challenger

    Jordan Koteras

  • Other Challenger

    Max Beck

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
1.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026