Race profile

Ohio

Governor race — OH

The question

Ohio: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
56%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
78%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 48.6%

    Amy Acton

  • Republican 48.0%

    Vivek Ramaswamy

  • Other 3.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  2. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin
  3. IowaDemocrat76 %3.9 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOhio 48.6%48.0%3.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% −0.5 48.2% −0.1 2.7% +0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

20 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Yougov Bowling Green State University 1–Sep 10 1,000 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link
Wedgewood Polls 11–Aug 13 800 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 46
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 6–Aug 10 1,008 RV
Republican 50 Democrat 48
link
Tulchin Research Jul 29 – Aug 4 600 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 44
link
The New York Times/Siena University 15–Jun 28 601 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 47
link
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP 14–Jun 16 800 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
Tulchin Research 2–Jun 4 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News May 28 – Jun 1 1,015 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 49
link
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov 7–Apr 14 1,000 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 47
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 413 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 44
link
Quantus Insights 13–Mar 14 809 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Emc Research Ohio Environmental Council 10–Feb 22 1,343 LV
Democrat 53 Republican 43
link
Emerson College 6–Dec 8 850 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Data Targeting T Roosevelt Action 3–Dec 8 603 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 43
link
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov 2–Oct 14 800 RV
Republican 50 Democrat 47
link
Hart Research Associates Ohio Federation of Teachers 19–Sep 22 800 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Emerson College 18–Aug 19 1,000 RV
Republican 49 Democrat 39
link
Impact Research 24–Jul 28 800 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 46
link
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov 18–Apr 24 800 RV
Republican 50 Democrat 45
link
Public Policy Polling 314 Action 19–Feb 20 642 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Ohio elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 25 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 49% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting governor

Mike DeWine

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Amy Acton

  • Other Open seat

    Donald Kissick

  • Other Open seat

    Timothy Grady

  • Republican Open seat

    Vivek Ramaswamy

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.8 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026