Ohio

Governor’s race · Ohio

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 66% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.0%

Amy Acton
Republican 47.8%

Vivek Ramaswamy
Other 2.2%

Donald Kissick Libertarian

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 63% chance (66% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	66%
Orbit	Democrat	63%
50/50 blend	Democrat	65%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Ohio	50.0%	47.8%	2.2%
National averageUnited States	50.0%	46.4%+1.4	3.6%−1.4

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

41 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Research Co.	Oct 30, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	450	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 42	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 26, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	717	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Activote	16–Oct 31, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Insideradvantage	29–Oct 30, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 46	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	2,082	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 46	See the poll
Suffolk University USA Today	21–Oct 26, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	22–Oct 24, 2026	469	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 39	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	508	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 45	See the poll
Verasight VoteHub	1–Oct 20, 2026	531	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
Activote	Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026	400	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 49	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	15–Oct 19, 2026	2,005	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 47	See the poll
Marist University	15–Oct 18, 2026	1,176	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
New River Strategies/Gs Strategy Group Cook Political Report	9–Oct 13, 2026	959	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 44	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 9, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 44	See the poll
Co/Efficient	5–Oct 6, 2026	925	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	760	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	616	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Yougov	18–Sep 30, 2026	3,777	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Suffolk University USA Today	23–Sep 27, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 41	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	26–Sep 27, 2026	680	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
Marist University	24–Sep 27, 2026	1,298	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 44	See the poll
Yougov Bowling Green State University	1–Sep 10, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	29–Aug 31, 2026	504	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 37	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,008	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 48	See the poll
Tulchin Research	Jul 29, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 44	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Jun 28, 2026	601	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 47	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	14–Jun 16, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Tulchin Research	2–Jun 4, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	May 28, 2026 – Jun 1, 2026	1,015	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 49	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	7–Apr 14, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	413	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 44	See the poll
Quantus Insights	13–Mar 14, 2026	809	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Emc Research Ohio Environmental Council	10–Feb 22, 2026	1,343	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 43	See the poll
Emerson College	6–Dec 8, 2025	850	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Data Targeting T Roosevelt Action	3–Dec 8, 2025	603	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	2–Oct 14, 2025	800	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 47	See the poll
Hart Research Associates Ohio Federation of Teachers	19–Sep 22, 2025	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Emerson College	18–Aug 19, 2025	1,000	registered voters	Republican 49 Democrat 39	See the poll
Impact Research	24–Jul 28, 2025	800	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 46	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	18–Apr 24, 2025	800	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling 314 Action	19–Feb 20, 2025	642	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Mike DeWine · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Amy Acton
source
Other Open seat

Donald Kissick
source
Republican Open seat

Vivek Ramaswamy
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 25.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 4.7 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Iowa Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026