Race profile

Iowa

Governor race — IA

The question

Iowa: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
76%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
69%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.2%

    Rob Sand

  • Republican 48.4%

    Zach Lahn

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereIowa 51.2%48.4%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +2.1 48.2% +0.2 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

12 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation 9–Sep 11 500 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Yougov 3–Sep 8 2,041 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 41
link
Emerson College Nexstar Aug 31 – Sep 1 750 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 46
link
Wedgewood Polls 27–Aug 29 600 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 46
link
Suffolk University 20–Aug 23 500 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Emerson College Nexstar 2–Aug 4 712 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 43
link
The New York Times/Siena University 15–Jun 27 600 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 47
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 23–Jun 27 1,003 RV
Democrat 53 Republican 44
link
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation 16–Jun 19 600 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 43
link
Global Strategy Group 23–Apr 28 — LV
Democrat 50 Republican 41
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 377 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 39
link
Gbao ModSquad 10–Mar 16 1,200 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Iowa elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 19 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting governor

Kim Reynolds

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rob Sand

  • Other Open seat

    Sondra Wilson

  • Republican Open seat

    Zach Lahn

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
18.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.6 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026