Iowa

Governor’s race · Iowa

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 49%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.1%

Rob Sand
Republican 47.5%

Zach Lahn

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 74% chance (80% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	80%
Orbit	Democrat	74%
50/50 blend	Democrat	77%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Iowa	52.1%	47.5%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+2.1	46.4%+1.1	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

27 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 26, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	705	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 43	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	2,019	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	October 28, 2026	1,020	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Echelon Insights	16–Oct 23, 2026	403	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	15–Oct 19, 2026	863	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
New River Strategies/Gs Strategy Group Cook Political Report	9–Oct 13, 2026	602	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 43	See the poll
Yougov	6–Oct 12, 2026	2,244	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 44	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	8–Oct 12, 2026	678	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Marist University	8–Oct 11, 2026	1,100	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 45	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	5–Oct 6, 2026	650	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	801	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 42	See the poll
Suffolk University	1–Oct 4, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 43	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	606	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 41	—
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	24–Sep 28, 2026	1,204	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 44	See the poll
Marist University	17–Sep 20, 2026	1,050	registered voters	Democrat 54 Republican 42	See the poll
Co/Efficient	14–Sep 16, 2026	831	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation	9–Sep 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Yougov	3–Sep 8, 2026	2,041	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 41	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026	750	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 46	See the poll
Suffolk University	20–Aug 23, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	2–Aug 4, 2026	712	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Jun 27, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jun 27, 2026	1,003	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 44	See the poll
Cygnal Political Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation	16–Jun 19, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	23–Apr 28, 2026	—	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 41	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	377	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 39	See the poll
Gbao ModSquad	10–Mar 16, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Kim Reynolds · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Rob Sand
source
Other Open seat

Sondra Wilson
source
Republican Open seat

Zach Lahn
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 18.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 5.8 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026