Georgia

Governor’s race · Georgia

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 59% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.4%

Keisha Lance Bottoms
Republican 49.2%

Rick Jackson

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 54% chance (59% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	59%
Orbit	Democrat	54%
50/50 blend	Democrat	56%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Georgia	50.4%	49.2%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+0.4	46.4%+2.8	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

17 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
State Navigate	23–Oct 27, 2026	679	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 47	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	508	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 48	See the poll
Activote	6–Oct 20, 2026	400	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 49	See the poll
Quantus Insights	15–Oct 17, 2026	755	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 48	See the poll
University Of Georgia Atlanta Journal-Constitution	7–Oct 15, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 45	See the poll
Insideradvantage James Magazine Online	12–Oct 13, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 47	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	21–Sep 23, 2026	678	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 50	See the poll
Insideradvantage	22–Sep 23, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 46	See the poll
Yougov	15–Sep 18, 2026	3,069	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 44	See the poll
Insideradvantage James Magazine Online	16–Aug 17, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 46	See the poll
Quantus Insights Natural Gas Association of Georgia	Jul 29, 2026 – Aug 1, 2026	815	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	13–Jul 16, 2026	1,060	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
State Navigate	10–Jul 13, 2026	448	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 44	See the poll
Wick	27–Jun 30, 2026	1,175	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 43	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jun 27, 2026	1,002	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 47	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	May 30, 2026 – Jun 2, 2026	510	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 38	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	407	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Brian Kemp · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Keisha Lance Bottoms
source
Republican Open seat

Rick Jackson
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 7.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 4.6 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Iowa Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026