Race profile

Georgia

Governor race — GA

The question

Georgia: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
63%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
67%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.6%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

  • Republican 49.0%

    Rick Jackson

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereGeorgia 50.6%49.0%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +1.5 48.2% +0.8 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

8 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Insideradvantage James Magazine Online 16–Aug 17 800 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 46
link
Quantus Insights Natural Gas Association of Georgia Jul 29 – Aug 1 815 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP 13–Jul 16 1,060 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
State Navigate 10–Jul 13 448 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 44
link
Wick 27–Jun 30 1,175 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 43
link
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News 23–Jun 27 1,002 RV
Democrat 52 Republican 47
link
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy May 30 – Jun 2 510 LV
Democrat 53 Republican 38
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 407 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Georgia elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 8 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting governor

Brian Kemp

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

  • Republican Open seat

    Rick Jackson

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
7.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.4 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026