Race profile

Kansas

Governor race — KS

The question

Kansas: will Democrat lose this seat to Republican?

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
7.3
P(close race)
35%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.3%

    Ty Masterson

  • Democrat 46.4%

    Cindy Holscher

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereKansas 53.3%46.4%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +5.1 49.1% −2.8 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Co/Efficient 8–Sep 10 915 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 43
link
Global Strategy Group 13–Aug 16 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 46
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Kansas elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 2 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting governor

Laura Kelly

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Cindy Holscher

  • Republican Open seat

    Ty Masterson

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
2.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026