Kansas

Governor’s race · Kansas

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 68% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 59%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.1%

Ty Masterson
Democrat 48.5%

Cindy Holscher

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 55% chance (68% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	68%
Orbit	Republican	55%
50/50 blend	Republican	62%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Kansas	51.1%	48.5%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+4.7	50.0%−1.5	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

12 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	736	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	2,085	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 49	See the poll
Emerson College	26–Oct 28, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 53 Democrat 48	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	20–Oct 26, 2026	838	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 45	See the poll
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	22–Oct 26, 2026	801	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 45	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	18–Oct 21, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	2,252	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 44	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	22–Sep 30, 2026	605	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 44	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	15–Sep 16, 2026	750	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 44	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Democratic Attorneys General Association	13–Sep 16, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	8–Sep 10, 2026	915	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 43	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	13–Aug 16, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Laura Kelly · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Cindy Holscher
source
Republican Open seat

Ty Masterson
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 2.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.0 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Iowa Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026