Race profile

Florida

Governor race — FL

The question

Florida: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
79%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.0%

    Byron Donalds

  • Democrat 49.5%

    David Jolly

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin
  3. IowaDemocrat76 %3.9 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereFlorida 50.0%49.5%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +1.9 49.1% +0.4 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

22 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Change Research Freedom Project USA 7–Sep 9 1,107 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
Hart Research Associates Democratic Governors Association 10–Aug 13 600 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute 20–Jul 26 1,026 LV
Republican 40 Democrat 36
link
University Of North Florida 8–Jul 17 848 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 41
link
Kaplan Strategies 8–Jun 9 668 LV
Republican 35 Democrat 30
link
Change Research Freedom Project USA 13–May 16 2,070 RV
Republican 43 Democrat 41
link
Cherry Communications Florida Chamber of Commerce 1–May 9 604 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 39
link
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research Mar 25 – Apr 13 848 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 40
link
Echelon Insights NetChoice 3–Apr 9 406 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 43
link
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications Mar 27 – Apr 3 1,834 LV
Republican 41 Democrat 41
link
Emerson College 29–Mar 31 1,125 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 39
link
University Of North Florida Feb 21 – Mar 2 773 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 36
link
The Public Sentiment Institute February 20, 2026 124 LV
Democrat 42 Republican 36
link
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute 13–Feb 16 — LV
Republican 41 Democrat 36
link
University Of North Florida Florida Watch 15–Oct 25 728 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 34
link
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute 16–Sep 18 1,123 RV
Republican 36 Democrat 32
link
Bendixen & Amandi International 7–Sep 9 631 LV
Democrat 41 Republican 40
link
Mclaughlin & Associates Associated Industries of Florida 25–Aug 27 800 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 41
link
Cygnal Political Conservatives for Clean Energy 25–Aug 27 1,000 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 38
link
Victory Insights 7–Jun 10 600 LV
Republican 37 Democrat 31
link
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute 5–May 7 1,144 RV
Republican 38 Democrat 34
link
Cygnal Political 26–Oct 28 600 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Florida elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 19 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting governor

Ron DeSantis

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    David Jolly

  • Other Open seat

    Charles Burkett

  • Other Open seat

    Dean Abrams

  • Other Open seat

    Desmond Meade

  • Other Open seat

    Frank Russo

  • Other Open seat

    Jeffrey Datto

  • Other Open seat

    Moe Dimanche

  • Other Open seat

    Scott Jewett

  • Republican Open seat

    Byron Donalds

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
19.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.2 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026