Florida

Governor’s race · Florida

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.3%

Byron Donalds
Democrat 47.5%

David Jolly
Other 1.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 64% chance (77% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	77%
Orbit	Republican	64%
50/50 blend	Republican	71%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Florida	51.3%	47.5%	1.2%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+4.9	50.0%−2.5	3.6%−2.4

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

46 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Activote	20–Oct 31, 2026	400	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 48	See the poll
Big Data Poll 1776 Law Center \| Public Polling Project	26–Oct 30, 2026	1,067	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 44	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	26–Oct 30, 2026	858	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 45	See the poll
Insideradvantage	28–Oct 29, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 45	See the poll
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	26–Oct 28, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 40 Democrat 39	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics	25–Oct 27, 2026	916	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 46	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	19–Oct 25, 2026	813	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 44	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	515	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 44	See the poll
Workbench Strategy	18–Oct 22, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	18–Oct 20, 2026	1,014	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 40	See the poll
Activote	1–Oct 19, 2026	400	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 48	See the poll
University Of North Florida	12–Oct 19, 2026	1,471	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 47	See the poll
Yougov Univision	2–Oct 15, 2026	825	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 42	See the poll
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	8–Oct 11, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 39	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	8–Oct 10, 2026	920	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications	4–Oct 10, 2026	2,351	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	1–Oct 9, 2026	716	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 41	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics	5–Oct 7, 2026	836	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 45	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	3,813	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 45	See the poll
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	849	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 42	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. NBC 6 Miami \| Telemundo	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	625	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 41	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	25–Sep 27, 2026	1,063	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	14–Sep 21, 2026	830	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 39	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics	15–Sep 17, 2026	913	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 43	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	7–Sep 9, 2026	1,107	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Hart Research Associates Democratic Governors Association	10–Aug 13, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute	20–Jul 26, 2026	1,026	likely voters	Republican 40 Democrat 36	See the poll
University Of North Florida	8–Jul 17, 2026	848	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 41	See the poll
Kaplan Strategies	8–Jun 9, 2026	668	likely voters	Republican 35 Democrat 30	See the poll
Change Research Freedom Project USA	13–May 16, 2026	2,070	registered voters	Republican 43 Democrat 41	See the poll
Cherry Communications Florida Chamber of Commerce	1–May 9, 2026	604	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 39	See the poll
Stetson University Center For Public Opinion Research	Mar 25, 2026 – Apr 13, 2026	848	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 40	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	406	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 43	See the poll
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications	Mar 27, 2026 – Apr 3, 2026	1,834	likely voters	Republican 41 Democrat 41	See the poll
Emerson College	29–Mar 31, 2026	1,125	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 39	See the poll
University Of North Florida	Feb 21, 2026 – Mar 2, 2026	773	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 36	See the poll
The Public Sentiment Institute	February 20, 2026	124	likely voters	Democrat 42 Republican 36	See the poll
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute	13–Feb 16, 2026	—	likely voters	Republican 41 Democrat 36	See the poll
University Of North Florida Florida Watch	15–Oct 25, 2025	728	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 34	See the poll
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute	16–Sep 18, 2025	1,123	registered voters	Republican 36 Democrat 32	See the poll
Bendixen & Amandi International	7–Sep 9, 2025	631	likely voters	Democrat 41 Republican 40	See the poll
Mclaughlin & Associates Associated Industries of Florida	25–Aug 27, 2025	800	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 41	See the poll
Cygnal Political Conservatives for Clean Energy	25–Aug 27, 2025	1,000	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 38	See the poll
Victory Insights	7–Jun 10, 2025	600	likely voters	Republican 37 Democrat 31	See the poll
Targoz Market Research James Madison Institute	5–May 7, 2025	1,144	registered voters	Republican 38 Democrat 34	See the poll
Cygnal Political	26–Oct 28, 2024	600	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Ron DeSantis · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

David Jolly
source
Other Open seat

Charles Burkett
source
Other Open seat

Dean Abrams
source
Other Open seat

Frank Russo
source
Other Open seat

Jeffrey Datto
source
Other Open seat

Moe Dimanche
source
Other Open seat

Scott Jewett
source
Republican Open seat

Byron Donalds
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 19.4 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.4 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Iowa Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026