Race profile
Texas
The question
Texas: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.2
- P(close race)
- 48%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereTexas | 52.0% | 46.9% | 1.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.2% +3.9 | 49.1% −2.2 | 2.7% −1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
29 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socal Strategies | 12–Sep 13 | 649 | LV | link | |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. Telemundo | 8–Sep 10 | 625 | LV | link | |
| Yougov Univision | Aug 27 – Sep 4 | 1,000 | RV | link | |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP | Aug 30 – Sep 1 | 895 | LV | link | |
| Overton Insights Texas Public Policy Foundation | 24–Aug 26 | 1,167 | LV | link | |
| Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research | 21–Aug 24 | 1,000 | LV | link | |
| Yougov University of Texas | 5–Aug 13 | 1,200 | RV | link | |
| Emerson College Nexstar | 9–Aug 10 | 1,000 | LV | link | |
| Gbao | 4–Aug 9 | 1,000 | LV | link | |
| Wedgewood Polls | 30–Jul 31 | 800 | LV | link | |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center | 27–Jul 30 | 1,200 | LV | link | |
| Siena University ReconMR | Texas A&M Bush School | 27–Jul 30 | 619 | LV | link | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News | 23–Jul 27 | 1,006 | RV | link | |
| Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research | 15–Jul 17 | 1,048 | LV | link | |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 19–Jun 27 | 656 | LV | link | |
| Socal Strategies Red Eagle Politics | June 21, 2026 | 800 | LV | link | |
| Yougov University of Texas | 5–Jun 12 | 1,200 | RV | link | |
| Quantus Insights | 3–Jun 4 | 800 | LV | link | |
| Siena University ReconMR | Texas A&M Bush School | 1–Jun 4 | 807 | LV | link | |
| Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research | 27–May 28 | 1,670 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling Lone Star Rising PAC | 22–May 23 | 643 | RV | link | |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center | Apr 22 – May 6 | 1,223 | LV | link | |
| Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research | 17–Apr 20 | 1,018 | LV | link | |
| Yougov University of Texas | 10–Apr 20 | 1,200 | RV | link | |
| University Of Texas At Tyler Center For Opinion Research | 13–Feb 22 | 1,117 | RV | link | |
| Gbao | Jan 26 – Feb 3 | 1,000 | LV | link | |
| University Of Houston Hobby School Of Public Affairs | 20–Jan 31 | 1,502 | LV | link | |
| Emerson College Nexstar | 10–Jan 12 | 1,165 | RV | link | |
| Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research | 27–Aug 29 | 843 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Texas elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 11 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting governor
Greg Abbott
Party Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Greg Abbott
-
Democrat Challenger Gina Hinojosa
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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