Vote-Scope Labs · Updated November 2, 2026
U.S. Governors 2026
Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.
Democrat
21 Wins: Harfang 22Republican
15 Wins: Harfang 14Generic ballot according to Orbit
D 54.5 · R 45.4 Days to election: 1Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?
They agree
-
Democrat -
Republican
What if we listened to both engines at once?
50/50 blend: Democrat 22
The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. Its first real blind test came in Quebec on October 5: the blend picked the right winner in 114 of 127 ridings, against 110 for the reference forecast and 113 for Orbit, and its probabilities were the best calibrated of the three. One election is not enough to conclude: British Columbia is its second test.
All 36 races: Harfang des neiges, Orbit and the blend
For each race, the favourite and its chance of winning according to our main forecast (Harfang des neiges), according to Orbit, and according to the 50/50 blend, which averages the two chances. The two models pick the same favourite in 35 of 36 races. The other one is flagged.
| Race | Harfang des neiges | Orbit | 50/50 blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Republican 97% | Republican 85% | Republican 91% |
| Alaska | Democrat 79% | Democrat 65% | Democrat 72% |
| Arizona | Democrat 94% | Democrat 80% | Democrat 87% |
| Arkansas | Republican 98% | Republican 87% | Republican 93% |
| California | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| Colorado | Democrat 99% | Democrat 95% | Democrat 97% |
| Connecticut | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 95% | Democrat 97% |
| Florida | Republican 78% | Republican 64% | Republican 71% |
| Georgia | Democrat 63% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 58% |
| Hawaii | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| Idaho | Republican > 99% | Republican 98% | Republican > 99% |
| Illinois | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| Iowa | Democrat 80% | Democrat 74% | Democrat 77% |
| Kansas | Republican 65% | Republican 54% | Republican 59% |
| Maine | Democrat 98% | Democrat 87% | Democrat 93% |
| Maryland | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| Massachusetts | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| Michigan | Democrat 94% | Democrat 78% | Democrat 86% |
| Minnesota | Democrat 97% | Democrat 81% | Democrat 89% |
| Nebraska | Republican 93% | Republican 65% | Republican 79% |
| Nevadasplit | Democrat 62% | Republican 58% | Democrat 52% |
| New Hampshire | Republican 84% | Republican 80% | Republican 82% |
| New Mexico | Democrat 89% | Democrat 81% | Democrat 85% |
| New York | Democrat 99% | Democrat 87% | Democrat 93% |
| Ohio | Democrat 67% | Democrat 64% | Democrat 66% |
| Oklahoma | Republican 96% | Republican 61% | Republican 78% |
| Oregon | Democrat 78% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 66% |
| Pennsylvania | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| Rhode Island | Democrat 88% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 93% |
| South Carolina | Republican 93% | Republican 81% | Republican 87% |
| South Dakota | Republican 99% | Republican 89% | Republican 94% |
| Tennessee | Republican 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| Texas | Republican 61% | Republican 57% | Republican 59% |
| Vermont | Republican 80% | Republican 75% | Republican 77% |
| Wisconsin | Democrat 78% | Democrat 63% | Democrat 70% |
| Wyoming | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
The closest races according to Orbit
| Race | Polls | Democratic chances · Orbit (quantum) | Democratic chances · Harfang (classical) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 7 | 54% | 78% |
| Georgia | 19 | 54% | 63% |
| Kansas | 13 | 46% | 35% |
| Texas | 63 | 43% | 39% |
| Nevada | 14 | 42% | 62% |
| Oklahoma | 1 | 39% | 4% |
| Wisconsin | 17 | 63% | 78% |
| Ohio | 42 | 64% | 67% |
| Florida | 48 | 36% | 22% |
| Alaska | 15 | 65% | 79% |
| Nebraska | 14 | 35% | 7% |
| Iowa | 27 | 74% | 80% |
| Vermont | 7 | 25% | 20% |
| Michigan | 49 | 78% | 94% |
| Arizona | 30 | 80% | 94% |
Where the two engines disagree
- Nevada Orbit (quantum): D 42% Harfang (classical): D 62%
No past U.S. election has been replayed in Orbit yet: these numbers have no accuracy record.
Orbit’s instruments
Voters who switched sides since the last election
7.2 at least, in points of the electorateCone of possibilities until election day
± 0.6 points of maximum movement for a party at 50%Days to election
1 November 3, 2026How Orbit works, in three ideas
Opinion travels on a sphere
A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.
Polls are measurements
As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.
Qubits instead of dice
Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.