Race profile

Wyoming

Governor race — WY

The question

Wyoming: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 64.1%

    Eric Barlow

  • Democrat 25.8%

    Kenneth Casner

  • Other 10.1%

    Joseph Kibler

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWyoming 64.1%25.8%10.1%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +15.9 49.1% −23.3 2.7% +7.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Wyoming elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 58 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 26% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Mark Gordon

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kenneth Casner

  • Other Open seat

    Joseph Kibler

  • Republican Open seat

    Eric Barlow

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
58.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026