Race profile

South Carolina

Governor race — SC

The question

South Carolina: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
13%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.6%

    Alan Wilson

  • Democrat 45.0%

    Jermaine Johnson

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereSouth Carolina 54.6%45.0%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +6.4 49.1% −4.1 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Hart Research Associates 12–Aug 15 600 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 41
link
Public Policy Polling 16–Jul 17 577 RV
Republican 45 Democrat 37
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

South Carolina elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 17 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Henry McMaster

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Jermaine Johnson

  • Other Open seat

    Michael Addison

  • Other Open seat

    Walid Hakim

  • Republican Open seat

    Alan Wilson

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
17.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.8 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026