South Carolina

Governor’s race · South Carolina

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.2%

Alan Wilson
Democrat 44.6%

Jermaine Johnson
Other 2.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 81% chance (93% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	93%
Orbit	Republican	81%
50/50 blend	Republican	87%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
South Carolina	53.2%	44.6%	2.3%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+6.7	50.0%−5.5	3.5%−1.3

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

8 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Trafalgar Group	Oct 31, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	1,091	likely voters	Republican 54 Democrat 39	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	19–Oct 26, 2026	707	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 44	See the poll
Targoz Market Research South Carolina Policy Council	16–Oct 25, 2026	895	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 41	See the poll
The Citadel Poll	14–Oct 25, 2026	1,009	registered voters	Republican 36 Democrat 32	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	16–Oct 18, 2026	1,095	likely voters	Republican 53 Democrat 37	See the poll
National Public Affairs	13–Oct 16, 2026	604	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 41	See the poll
Hart Research Associates	12–Aug 15, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 41	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	16–Jul 17, 2026	577	registered voters	Republican 45 Democrat 37	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Henry McMaster · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Jermaine Johnson
source
Other Open seat

Michael Addison
source
Other Open seat

Walid Hakim
source
Republican Open seat

Alan Wilson
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 17.4 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.0 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026