Race profile
Alaska
The question
Alaska: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 67%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 55%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereAlaska | 51.1% | 48.5% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.2% +3.0 | 49.1% −0.7 | 2.7% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
7 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Jun 30 – Jul 1 | — | LV | link | |
| Alaska Survey Research | 16–Apr 19 | — | LV | link | |
| Lake Research Partners | 5–Feb 11 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Data For Progress | 17–Oct 23 | 582 | LV | link | |
| Alaska Survey Research | 10–Oct 14 | 1,748 | LV | link | |
| Data For Progress | 21–Jul 27 | 491 | LV | link | |
| Data For Progress | Feb 28 – Mar 7 | 1,008 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Alaska elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 31 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting governor
Mike Dunleavy
Party Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
- Republican Open seat
Dave Bronson
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026