Race profile

Pennsylvania

Governor race — PA

The question

Pennsylvania: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.4%

    Josh Shapiro incumbent

  • Republican 37.8%

    Stacy Garrity

  • Other 0.8%

    Ken Krawchuk

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HerePennsylvania 61.4%37.8%0.8%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +12.2 48.2% −10.3 2.7% −1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

14 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Franklin & Marshall College 17–Aug 23 501 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 25
link
Bravo Group PennLive 18–Aug 22 711 LV
Democrat 56 Republican 25
link
The New York Times/Siena University The Philadelphia Inquirer 17–Aug 21 760 RV
Democrat 54 Republican 37
link
Bravo Group PennLive 17–Jul 24 630 LV
Democrat 53 Republican 28
link
Quinnipiac University 9–Jul 13 895 RV
Democrat 53 Republican 40
link
Bravo Group PennLive 18–Jun 25 644 LV
Democrat 54 Republican 29
link
Franklin & Marshall College 8–Jun 14 546 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 28
link
Mad Global Strategy Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future 9–Jun 11 600 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 31
link
Bravo Group PennLive 20–May 24 684 LV
Democrat 53 Republican 29
link
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. 18–Mar 29 700 LV
Democrat 58 Republican 36
link
Franklin & Marshall College Feb 18 – Mar 1 834 RV
Democrat 48 Republican 28
link
Quinnipiac University 19–Feb 23 836 RV
Democrat 55 Republican 37
link
Quinnipiac University 25–Sep 29 1,579 RV
Democrat 55 Republican 39
link
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. 22–Sep 28 700 LV
Democrat 54 Republican 36
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Pennsylvania elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 15 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Josh Shapiro

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Josh Shapiro

  • Other Challenger

    Ken Krawchuk

  • Republican Challenger

    Stacy Garrity

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
14.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.7 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026