Hawaii
Governor’s race · Hawaii
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 67.0% | 32.6% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 50.0%+17.0 | 46.4%−13.8 | 3.6%−3.2 |
Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current governor
Josh Green · Democrat
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2022)
The Democrats won by 26.4 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 34.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated