Race profile

Hawaii

Governor race — HI

The question

Hawaii: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.6%

    Josh Green incumbent

  • Republican 33.0%

    Gary Cordery

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereHawaii 66.6%33.0%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +17.4 48.2% −15.1 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Hawaii elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 26 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Josh Green

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Josh Green

  • Other Challenger

    Bu La'ia Hill

  • Other Challenger

    Calvert Williamson

  • Other Challenger

    Clyde McClain Lewman

  • Other Challenger

    John Giuffre

  • Republican Challenger

    Gary Cordery

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
26.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.1 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026