Race profile

Illinois

Governor race — IL

The question

Illinois: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.9
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.7%

    JB Pritzker incumbent

  • Republican 39.9%

    Darren Bailey

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereIllinois 59.7%39.9%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +10.6 48.2% −8.3 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Victory Research 20–Nov 24 1,200 LV
Democrat 54 Republican 34
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Illinois elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 13 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

JB Pritzker

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    JB Pritzker

  • Republican Challenger

    Darren Bailey

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
12.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.4 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026