Illinois

Governor’s race · Illinois

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 59.1%

JB Pritzker, incumbent
Republican 39.7%

Darren Bailey
Other 1.2%

Collin Corbett Independent

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	96%
50/50 blend	Democrat	98%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Illinois	59.1%	39.7%	1.2%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+9.0	46.4%−6.7	3.6%−2.4

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Activote	23–Oct 31, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 59 Republican 41	See the poll
Activote	2–Oct 22, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 59 Republican 41	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Chicago News Weekly	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	569	registered voters	Democrat 54 Republican 34	See the poll
Victory Research	20–Nov 24, 2025	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

JB Pritzker · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

JB Pritzker
source
Other Challenger

Collin Corbett
source
Republican Challenger

Darren Bailey
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 12.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.4 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026