Race profile

South Dakota

Governor race — SD

The question

South Dakota: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
19.8
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.4%

    Larry Rhoden incumbent

  • Democrat 38.7%

    Dan Ahlers

  • Other 2.9%

    Allison Renville

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereSouth Dakota 58.4%38.7%2.9%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +10.3 49.1% −10.5 2.7% +0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

South Dakota elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 27 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Larry Rhoden

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Larry Rhoden

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dan Ahlers

  • Other Challenger

    Allison Renville

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026