South Dakota

Governor’s race · South Dakota

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 57.7%

Larry Rhoden, incumbent
Democrat 41.9%

Dan Ahlers

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 89% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	99%
Orbit	Republican	89%
50/50 blend	Republican	94%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
South Dakota	57.7%	41.9%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+11.2	50.0%−8.1	3.5%−3.1

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	22–Oct 26, 2026	448	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 39	See the poll
Emerson College KELO-TV	19–Oct 21, 2026	803	likely voters	Republican 60 Democrat 41	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota \| South Dakota News Watch	12–Oct 14, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 56 Democrat 36	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	6–Oct 8, 2026	400	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 38	See the poll
Lake Research Partners	26–Aug 30, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Larry Rhoden · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Larry Rhoden
source
Democrat Challenger

Dan Ahlers
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 26.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.8 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026