California

Governor’s race · California

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 61.8%

Xavier Becerra
Republican 37.8%

Steve Hilton

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	98%
50/50 blend	Democrat	99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
California	61.8%	37.8%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+11.8	46.4%−8.7	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

19 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Activote	17–Oct 31, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 63 Republican 37	See the poll
University Of California Berkeley Institute Of Governmental Studies Los Angeles Times	19–Oct 25, 2026	1,477	likely voters	Democrat 61 Republican 34	See the poll
Surveyusa KGTV-TV (California) \| San Diego Union-Tribune	19–Oct 24, 2026	799	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 32	See the poll
Public Policy Institute Of California	16–Oct 22, 2026	1,086	likely voters	Democrat 61 Republican 37	See the poll
Mclaughlin & Associates California Post	17–Oct 20, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 39	See the poll
Emerson College	17–Oct 19, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 64 Republican 36	See the poll
Activote	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 63 Republican 37	See the poll
Truedot Politico \| UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research	9–Oct 14, 2026	909	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 35	See the poll
Manhattan Institute	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 57 Republican 39	See the poll
Ivc Media Independent Voter Project	23–Sep 28, 2026	2,906	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 38	See the poll
Surveyusa ABC 10 News \| KGTV-TV (California) \| San Diego Union-Tribune	15–Sep 20, 2026	742	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 33	See the poll
University Of California Berkeley Institute Of Governmental Studies Los Angeles Times	15–Sep 20, 2026	4,512	likely voters	Democrat 58 Republican 33	See the poll
Truedot Politico \| UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research	8–Sep 14, 2026	1,983	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 36	See the poll
Public Policy Institute Of California	4–Sep 10, 2026	1,098	likely voters	Democrat 60 Republican 38	See the poll
University Of California Berkeley Institute Of Governmental Studies Los Angeles Times	3–Aug 9, 2026	2,310	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 37	See the poll
Public Policy Institute Of California	Jun 29, 2026 – Jul 6, 2026	1,003	likely voters	Democrat 61 Republican 36	See the poll
Kreate Strategies	13–Jun 17, 2026	900	registered voters	Democrat 58 Republican 33	See the poll
University Of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center For Urban Politics And Policy/Cal Poly Pomona	23–May 26, 2026	735	likely voters	Democrat 58 Republican 35	See the poll
University Of California Berkeley Institute Of Governmental Studies Los Angeles Times	19–May 24, 2026	8,578	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 31	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Gavin Newsom · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Xavier Becerra
source
Republican Open seat

Steve Hilton
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 18.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 24.1 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026