Race profile

New Hampshire

Governor race — NH

The question

New Hampshire: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
11.3
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.8%

    Kelly Ayotte incumbent

  • Democrat 43.6%

    Cinde Warmington

  • Other 1.6%

    Jon Kiper

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNew Hampshire 54.8%43.6%1.6%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +6.6 49.1% −5.5 2.7% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

10 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Co/Efficient 9–Sep 11 958 LV
Republican 55 Democrat 34
link
University Of New Hampshire 7News 20–Aug 24 1,878 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 39
link
St Anselm 17–Aug 18 1,411 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 38
link
St Anselm 24–Jun 25 1,614 RV
Republican 45 Democrat 37
link
University Of New Hampshire 18–Jun 23 2,221 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 39
link
University Of New Hampshire 17–Apr 21 1,117 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 39
link
St Anselm 16–Mar 18 1,491 RV
Republican 46 Democrat 39
link
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation. 28–Jan 29 563 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 37
link
University Of New Hampshire 15–Jan 19 2,027 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 39
link
Co/Efficient 9–Oct 13 1,034 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 40
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

New Hampshire elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 9 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Kelly Ayotte

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kelly Ayotte

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cinde Warmington

  • Other Challenger

    Jon Kiper

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
9.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026