New Hampshire

Governor’s race · New Hampshire

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.7%

Kelly Ayotte, incumbent
Democrat 46.3%

Cinde Warmington
Other 2.0%

Jon Kiper Community First

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 80% chance (84% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	84%
Orbit	Republican	80%
50/50 blend	Republican	82%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
New Hampshire	51.7%	46.3%	2.0%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+5.3	50.0%−3.7	3.5%−1.5

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

19 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	2,026	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 48	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	25–Oct 29, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 43	See the poll
St Anselm	19–Oct 20, 2026	1,672	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 42	See the poll
Umass Lowell	2–Oct 19, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 42	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	8–Oct 12, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 54 Democrat 38	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	1,520	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 40	See the poll
St Anselm AARP	28–Sep 29, 2026	1,042	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 45	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Sep 22, 2026	613	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 41	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	1,407	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 43	See the poll
Co/Efficient	9–Sep 11, 2026	958	likely voters	Republican 55 Democrat 34	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire 7News	20–Aug 24, 2026	1,878	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 39	See the poll
St Anselm	17–Aug 18, 2026	1,411	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 38	See the poll
St Anselm	24–Jun 25, 2026	1,614	registered voters	Republican 45 Democrat 37	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	2,221	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 39	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Apr 21, 2026	1,117	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 39	See the poll
St Anselm	16–Mar 18, 2026	1,491	registered voters	Republican 46 Democrat 39	See the poll
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation.	28–Jan 29, 2026	563	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 37	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	15–Jan 19, 2026	2,027	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 39	See the poll
Co/Efficient	9–Oct 13, 2025	1,034	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Kelly Ayotte · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Kelly Ayotte
source
Democrat Challenger

Cinde Warmington
source
Other Challenger

Jon Kiper
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 9.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.5 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026