Race profile

Vermont

Governor race — VT

The question

Vermont: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 67.1%

    Phil Scott incumbent

  • Democrat 29.9%

    Amanda Janoo

  • Other 2.9%

    Dean Roy

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereVermont 67.1%29.9%2.9%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +19.0 49.1% −19.2 2.7% +0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
University Of New Hampshire 15–Jul 20 925 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 33
link
University Of New Hampshire 18–Jun 23 867 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 27
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Vermont elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 52 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 67% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Phil Scott

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Phil Scott

  • Democrat Challenger

    Amanda Janoo

  • Other Challenger

    Dean Roy

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
51.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.4 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026