Vermont

Governor’s race · Vermont

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.5 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 35%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.4%

Phil Scott, incumbent
Democrat 45.0%

Amanda Janoo
Other 3.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 75% chance (80% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	80%
Orbit	Republican	75%
50/50 blend	Republican	77%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Vermont	51.4%	45.0%	3.6%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+5.0	50.0%−5.0	3.6%

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

7 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	1,164	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 43	See the poll
State Navigate	23–Oct 25, 2026	1,752	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
State Navigate	2–Oct 4, 2026	948	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 43	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	829	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Braun Research Vermont Public Radio	10–Sep 21, 2026	732	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 34	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	15–Jul 20, 2026	925	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 33	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	867	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 27	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Phil Scott · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Phil Scott
source
Democrat Challenger

Amanda Janoo
source
Other Challenger

Brian Judd
source
Other Challenger

Dean Roy
source
Other Challenger

June Goodband
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 51.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.5 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026