Nebraska

Governor’s race · Nebraska

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.9%

Jim Pillen, incumbent
Democrat 43.7%

Lynne Walz
Other 4.5%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 65% chance (93% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	93%
Orbit	Republican	65%
50/50 blend	Republican	79%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Nebraska	51.9%	43.7%	4.5%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+5.4	50.0%−6.4	3.5%+0.9

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

14 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	23–Oct 29, 2026	809	likely voters	Republican 53 Democrat 40	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	1,974	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 47	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	407	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 40 Independent and others 11	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	15–Oct 18, 2026	598	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 41 Independent and others 8	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	13–Oct 18, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 40 Democrat 39 Independent and others 10	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	15–Oct 18, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 40	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	13–Oct 14, 2026	571	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 46	See the poll
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	2–Oct 5, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 40 Independent and others 12	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 3, 2026	1,808	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 43	See the poll
Co/Efficient	28–Sep 30, 2026	1,113	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 38 Independent and others 10	See the poll
Lake Research Partners	8–Sep 14, 2026	900	likely voters	Democrat 40 Republican 40 Independent and others 13	See the poll
Surveyusa Grant Forbes, LLC	8–Sep 13, 2026	503	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 35	See the poll
Public Policy Polling DGA	1–Sep 2, 2026	559	registered voters	Republican 32 Democrat 31 Independent and others 21	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	6–Apr 7, 2026	670	registered voters	Republican 38 Democrat 33 Independent and others 12	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Jim Pillen · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Jim Pillen
source
Democrat Challenger

Lynne Walz
source
Other Challenger

Brett Lindstrom
source
Other Challenger

Rick Beard
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 23.4 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.6 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026