Race profile

Oregon

Governor race — OR

The question

Oregon: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
75%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
50%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.0%

    Tina Kotek incumbent

  • Republican 46.0%

    Christine Drazan

  • Other 3.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereOregon 50.0%46.0%3.9%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +0.9 48.2% −2.1 2.7% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Dhm Research Grow Oregon 3–Sep 9 600 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 43
link
Public Opinion Strategies 22–Jun 24 600 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 44
link
Hoffman Research Group 11–May 12 603 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 45
link
Fm3 Research Charlie Health Jan 28 – Feb 4 1,065 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 40
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Oregon elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 3 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting governor

Tina Kotek

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tina Kotek

  • Republican Challenger

    Christine Drazan

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
3.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026