Race profile
Michigan
The question
Michigan: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 92%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.3
- P(close race)
- 40%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMichigan | 52.8% | 46.8% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 49.1% +3.7 | 48.2% −1.4 | 2.7% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
27 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cnn Ssrs | Aug 31 – Sep 6 | 843 | LV | link | |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News | WDIV-TV | Aug 31 – Sep 3 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Epic-Mra | 22–Aug 28 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Michigan State University Institute For Public Policy And Social Research/Yougov | 10–Aug 20 | 779 | LV | link | |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP | 9–Aug 11 | 877 | LV | link | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News | 6–Aug 10 | 1,006 | RV | link | |
| Tipp Insights League of American Workers | 6–Aug 10 | 1,215 | LV | link | |
| Epic-Mra MIRS News Service | 24–Jul 31 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 28–Jul 29 | 672 | LV | link | |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. Business Leaders for Michigan | Michigan Education Association | 22–Jul 24 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service | 11–Jun 13 | 827 | LV | link | |
| Tipp Insights League of American Workers | 20–May 23 | 1,163 | LV | link | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service | 1–May 7 | 606 | LV | link | |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber | Apr 28 – May 1 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Impact Research | 23–Mar 29 | 800 | LV | link | |
| Michigan State University Institute For Public Policy And Social Research/Yougov | 2–Mar 24 | 1,000 | Adults | link | |
| Impact Research | 9–Feb 16 | 800 | LV | link | |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber | Jan 27 – Feb 2 | — | LV | link | |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News | WDIV-TV | 2–Jan 6 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service | 18–Nov 21 | 616 | LV | link | |
| Epic-Mra ABC 12 | 6–Nov 11 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Rosetta Stone | 23–Oct 25 | 637 | LV | link | |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | 9–Oct 14 | 600 | LV | link | |
| The Tyson Group Plymouth Union Public Advocacy | 8–Oct 9 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber | 5–May 8 | 600 | RV | link | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service | March 13, 2025 | 688 | LV | link | |
| Target Insyght MIRS News Service | 3–Mar 6 | 600 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Michigan elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 11 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting governor
Gretchen Whitmer
Party Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Jocelyn Benson
- Other Open seat
Anthony Hudson
-
Republican Open seat John James
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026